Foreign manufacturers are not taking up the demand of domestic suppliers of rimfire ammo.
The foreign manufacturers are part of the NORMAL supply in the U.S. They have factored the U.S. market into their production capacity and are limited just like the U.S. manufacturers--they can only increase their production capacity within certain limits.
The fact that they're foreign doesn't make them any different in terms of their limited ability to adjust to demand spikes.
By the way, importing ammunition into the U.S. is not as simple nor as quick as it might seem. Even if the foreign manufacturers were able to magically increase capacity to fully meet demand, there can be a surprising delay before that ammunition makes it to a U.S. shelf.
And importers are in the same boat as manufacturers. If they up their import quantities significantly and the spike goes away, now they are in a situation where it make take them years to recoup their investment by selling at normal demand levels. That's a good way to go bankrupt and they know it.
It has been years with a shortage of rimfire...
It doesn't matter how long it lasts. Until it is perceived by the ammo manufacturers to be a
permanent increase in demand they are not going to spend millions of money to increase production. They can't afford to make huge investments to create manufacturing capacity that will then be idled because the demand spike went away.
There is no doubt that I'm speculating what is going on, just like you are...
That's just it. You may be speculating, I am not. I have been following the investigations by congressmen into ammunition purchases by the government. I have done research into ammunition buys by the government, how they are administrated, the general quantities, and what the ammunition is used for. I have been listening to interviews with ammunition company executives, I have been reading articles by experts in the industry. I have personally spoken to persons working in the industry. The story, once you get away from all the speculation and panic-generating theories and rumors is always the same and it all makes perfect sense.
How much of a panic is there really?
It depends. I've seen .22LR prices well over 10 cents a round and have seen reports of people paying $100 a brick. The people willing to pay that much are keeping the shelves empty by encouraging others to stand in line to clean the shelves and sell what they buy at crazy profit margins. At my local Wal-Mart, the clerks tell me that the same relatively small number of folks stand in line for up to 4 hours any time an ammunition shipment is expected.
But just wait a little bit longer--the shelves are starting to refill and the prices are coming back down. There are two gun shops within a mile of my house and I can go into either one and buy .22LR ammo any time I want. At one, they have bricks for $30 apiece--6 cents a round.
It just takes time for people to calm down and for things to get back all the way to normal. I've seen this happen before and I'm sure we'll all see it happen again.
