replies from ammo makers AND the origin of the panic

[FISHY-A-NADO]

On more than one occasion I have been called a conspiracy theorist, mostly because of my cynical nature. With regards to the current shortage of guns and ammo however, I just do not believe there is some big conspiracy afoot. Think about it; it has been widely reported that the demand for guns by new gun owners has increased exponentially in the past few months. It follows then that there would be an exponential increase in the demand for ammo for those guns. Add to that the panic buying by many already existing shooters and it's not too difficult to understand that total demand is at a staggering level just from the general public even if DHS, military, etc simply maintained their historical demand averages. I'm sure there was not a manufacturer out there that included growth numbers this large in their forecasting for this year. A sudden increase in demand...even as low as 10%... on a facility already at maximum capacity can lead to backlog problems that can take weeks to work through. Remember too that the demand doesn't just impact the finished product manufacturer. It impacts every producer of components in the entire supply chain.

Most of us realize what has led to the overall spike in demand. Post after post mentions false rumors, conspiracy theories, bad reporting and all sorts of other propaganda. We should also keep in mind that when this sort of propaganda meets a free market economy, no economic forecasting model exists that can quantify where demand and pricing will ultimately land.

I agree with others who have stated that we are largely our own worst enemy sometimes...and I believe this situation qualifies, at least to some degree, as one of those times.

 

[lcpiper]

Know if you told me that someone is working to stoke the fires to increase/prolong the panic buying, that's a conspiracy theory I would believe.

 

[ClydeFrog]

FUD?, ads-gun press/media....

I'm curious to know if some of this gun/ammunition industry mess is really FUD or if it's a honest, straight out shortage/logistics problem.

It's a topic that should be address at the NRA convention & real answers should be given by the big firms(ATK, Winchester, CorBon, Hornady, Black Hills, etc).
US gun owners & supporters of the US shooting sports industry deserve better.

To me, it's like the ads or gun press articles that praise a new type of ammunition then; SURPRISE, no consumers can buy it.
Sales and other factors(combat troops, lack of raw material, damaged plants-factory locations, etc) could be a honest reason but for MONTHS on end?

Something is stinky.

CF

 

[buck460XVR]

Something is stinky.

CF

So is the shortage of guns and their limited availability a conspiracy also? Go to Wal-Mart and they have no .22LR, but they have shelves and shelves of turkey ammo that was manufactured last fall for the upcoming spring demand. Because it was a demand they, their distributor and the manufacturer planned for. No body had a crystal ball and foresaw Newtown and the frenzy buying it would produce. Most folks I know never had more than one brick or bulk pac of .22 LR ammo on hand a year ago. Now, those same folks are buying it by the case. One person is now buying what ten folks used to buy. The guy that used to buy it by the case is now buying THREE cases at a time. Folks used to buy ammo only when they needed it.....now they are buying it when they can find it, and buying all they find. This is no different than 5 years ago. The conspiracy theories and talk of ammo taxes and gun confiscation abounded then also. A year later it was over and many folks soon forgot. Till they got caught with their pants down.....again. Now......Take all the new guns that were bought over the last year and figure two boxes of ammo that would have been on the shelves had that gun not been bought. All of a sudden you have a surplus.

 

[Cascade1911]

b) The government buy-up is SO drastic that it's depleting the nation's supply of the very building blocks of ammunition - brass and lead.

I can't speak of lead but I do know there has been no significant price increase in the price of copper base casting alloys (bronze, brass etc.).

 

[Gaerek]

As has been said, there is no conspiracy. I went to my local Sportsman's Warehouse last Saturday hoping to find some ammo. I showed up about 20 minutes after opening. There was a line, 70 or 80 people deep coming from the Customer Service counter (where the ammo shipment was located). The line was first come, first serve. I asked the employees if they're getting less ammo than they used to. They told me they were getting anywhere from between 1.5 to 2 times their usual weekly ammo shipment, and that 90% of the total and 100% of the most popular calibers (9mm, .45, .223/5.56, and .22LR) will be gone by noon (they open at 9am). I asked when the line started forming, they said some people were out there at 5am, but most showed up around 7am. I decided I had enough ammo for now, and sleeping in was worth more than the ammo.

Hmm, twice the weekly supply GONE in 3 hours. This is not the government's fault. This is our fault for panicking. There is no conspiracy. Ammo is just being purchased as quickly as it become's available.

 

[HOGSHOOTER]

If small groups of shooter are buying all the ammo when its gets to the stores.How are they getting around the 2 0r 3 box limits most store post in sporting goods.I know some people who work at these stores they had ammo deliverd two to 3 times a week now 1 or 2 times a month if their lucky.Even CABELA`S HAS A TWO BOX LIMIT IN STORE and bare ammo shelfs same for powder you can still buy shotgun shells and some ammo for deer gun not much I grant you but you at least can order it.Guess want im saying how can it be bought out when it never gets to the STORE.I already said this on another thread and some might disagree ,You want ammo on store shelfs END THE IMPORT BAN ON CHINAS AMMO NOW ! ! !Sorry there it is.HOGSHOOTER

 

[Dashunde]

No body had a crystal ball and foresaw Newtown and the frenzy buying it would produce.

I dont really think there is a conspiracy (dpris), but that quote above hits on my point about the 22 shortage...

Newtown and the resulting political issues have nothing to do with the little 22LR - the round nor guns chambered for it are on anyones bad list.
So I dont really grasp what Newtown, hoarding, and the doomsday people have in common.

I understand we now have a lot more new shooters, good. I get why we're physically out of ammo... what I dont understand is the thinking and rationale behind the sudden hoarding of 22.
They're gonna keep making it for years to come.

 

[Cascade1911]

They're gonna keep making it for years to come.

And how much will it cost and where will you be able to get it and how much will they let you buy? Here in NY those questions are still to be answered. For myself, I feed the shortage in as much as if I see ammo or components at or near pre-craze prices (+10%) I'll usually buy some (which has not been very often).

Another observation; Is Department of Homeland Security buying reloading presses, die sets, powder measures etc? Is DHS grabbing all the once fired brass?

 

[Truth Addict]

On Friday, since my workplace was closed, I went to an outdoor sports type supplier in Canton, Ohio. I wanted to see this first hand. I got there at 8:15 and I was the only car in the parking lot. By 8:25 there were 10 people there, out of their cars, standing in line at the door! I followed suit. By 9:00 when the doors opened there were at least 25 people there. After standing in line for 35 minutes and talking to the other men, it seemed that the 3 calibers everyone wanted we're 22lr, 9mm and .223. It was a frenzy once inside, but this was mitigated somewhat by the fact that the store limited the amount they would sell you. I have a new fondness for this store because not only did they limit the amount they would sell you, but the prices were reasonable. They limited the 9mm to one box of 50 (PMC Bronze $16) 22lr to two boxes of 50 (Winchester Super X $3.75) and .223 to four boxes of 20. (not sure on the brand or price since I didn't buy any) A guy who had just bought a new 22 was bummed out that he could only get 100 rounds. Once in the parking lot, I sold him my two boxes of 22 and as a thank you, he sold me his box of 9mm. I believe that another guy also sold his boxes of 22 to him, so he had 300 rounds he could shoot in his new gun and it only cost him about $23. It was nice to see guys helping each other this way and now I feel educated as to what's happening out there with supply, demand and shortages.

 

[Come and take it.]

Look here at this link to an add on Kentucky classifieds

http://www.kyclassifieds.com/ad223136.htm

I am going to call total BS in capital letters on this. But a lot of people will fall for this rumor and it will spread through the population like wildfire.

If there is any evidence to support this story I would like to know.

Does George Soros own decision making stock in all the big ammo companies?

 

[2ndsojourn]

^^^ There will always be people who believe it because they saw it on the internet, especially when backed up by statements like "...my brother saw the pricing schedule..."

I'm sure you'll see this story a lot more from a lot of other 'trusted sources' in the near future.

 

[SHE3PDOG]

A guy who had just bought a new 22 was bummed out that he could only get 100 rounds. Once in the parking lot, I sold him my two boxes of 22 and as a thank you, he sold me his box of 9mm. I believe that another guy also sold his boxes of 22 to him, so he had 300 rounds he could shoot in his new gun and it only cost him about $23. It was nice to see guys helping each other this way and now I feel educated as to what's happening out there with supply, demand and shortages.

If only more people would help each other out like this, it would be a much better situation we're in. Good story.

 

[DPris]

Total BS.
Absolutely, unutterably, incontrovertibly, unmistakably, redundantly, ridiculously, and idiotically, BS.
Denis

 

[ChasingWhitetail91]

I know at Walmart alot of the employees alert their buddies to the shipment dates in my area. I went every other day for a couple weeks hoping to get a couple boxes of .22lr but no luck. Squirrels and rabbits are going to have the season off at this rate.

 

[Tom Servo]

The idea that George Soros owns the Freedom Group is an old, and roundly debunked, urban legend. The fact that the linked article leads with that should be a hint as to its veracity.

He tells me that ATK has been ordered by the federal government to curtail sales of ammunition, primers and powder to the retail market

"He," in this case being the poster's son. No other source is given. Who would order them to restrict sales? How would that possibly not be all over the news if such an order was given?

What you see currently on the shelves is old stock and what’s left in the warehouses since the CT shootings and new stock will NOT be appearing anytime soon.

...which would explain why retailers are receiving new stock from Federal and Speer, who are supposedly under this umbrella.

Don't accept claims without evidence, and ignore those who present such claims. Ammunition is hard to get because demand currently exceeds supply. Why some people need to read conspiracy into it is beyond me.

 

[DPris]

Ditto & here, here!!!!!
Denis

 

[moto]

There's an interesting YouTube video on the making of CCI .22 ammunition.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvK9QlQtrKI&sns=em

It seems like a capital intensive and highly specialized operation, not the kind of setup that is easily repurposed for centerfire ammo as some have speculated in other threads. I can't see CCI (or any manufacturer for that matter) running out and adding capacity based on a short term spike in demand; they've seen this before and they know how it ends. They are quite happy to run the plant at 100% capacity for a while and take the opportunity to bump prices a bit.

 

[ClydeFrog]

Scuttle butt, bar talk...

I spoke briefly to a active senior SA(special agent) in the www.atf.gov .

He explained to me that the ATF is NOT interested in public ammunition sales & they honestly could care less about citizens buying ammunition in lots, bins, cans, carts, canoes, or socks.
He also said the big federal contracts were for training rounds that will be spread out nationwide for firearms training. The ATF uses the FLETC often and has many new hires. The ATF agent also told me new budgets & procurement plans will be way, way less due to Sequester issues/cuts.

ClydeFrog
PS: the SA also told me they carry Glock 22s in .40S&W with 27s as BUGs/2nd guns.

 

[Come and take it.]

This was one of the reasons I wanted to see the sequester take effect.

Looks like the sky didn't fall after all.