replies from ammo makers AND the origin of the panic

[ScottRiqui]

OK, let's assume for a minute that the whole ammo shortage is due to some sort of conspiracy by the DHS to buy up all the ammo from Winchester, Remington, and ATK so as not to leave any for the civilian market. The DHS has placed no orders with S&B, Prvi Partizan, Barnaul, Fiocchi or any of the other makers of imported ammo that is just as scarce as domestically made stuff and isn't reliant on American companies for components. Even if the government were hoarding brass and primers, it shouldn't affect the supply of imported ammo with steel cases and berdan primers.

Not that I agree with this, but the response you'll get is that the government purchasing the American-made stuff means that the foreign-made stuff is all that's available, so the consumer demand has shifted over to what's available and caused the shortages there as well.

 

[iraiam]

Now it is highly believable and fully understood and out of the realm of conspiracy now that the DHS is attempting to manipulate the market. Anyone who is still in denial of this should do some further research.

I don't need to do research, I have witnessed the truth with my own 2 eyes. I have personally watched 7,000 rounds of 223/556 ammunition sell out it less than 4 hours, this happened 2 weeks in a row. I have also witnessed large shipments of 9mm, 45 auto, and 22LR sell out just as fast.

Anyone who believes that the government is somehow manipulating the market or buyng all the ammo up so we can't get it is not grounding that belief in reality and fact.

 

[lcpiper]

Except people are getting Federal and Winchester still, and it still says nothing for why many of the odd calibers are gone as well.

If it was all .40 S&W, 9mm, .223REM, and .308WIN I might could buy into it. But every time I can't get past my gut and my gut says it's just us.

 

[DPris]

The odd calibers are easy.
Two reasons:

In fringe calibers, an entire year's production may be scheduled for January or February, under NORMAL circumstances. Under those normal circumstances, the makers have determined, based on past sales, what a given year's market will demand, and their one-time annual production run is geared toward that.
If something like the current push for gun control comes along & the market demand is seriously skewed, a years' supply can be cleaned out of the distribution channels in 30 days.

The other reason is that in times of high demand for the more popular calibers, fringe calibers & loads are sidelined in favor of turning out more volume in the higher-demand calibers.

Denis

 

[ScottRiqui]

.22 rimfire is still the oddball question, though. The government certainly isn't buying up huge quantities of it, and the equipment that makes .22 lr can't be repurposed by the manufacturers to make any other calibers. It's popular enough that it's made year-round, rather than just in limited batches.

So if the government is to blame for the .22lr shortage, it would have to be because:

a) The manufacturers literally can't spare the bodies it takes to run the .22 equipment, or

b) The government buy-up is SO drastic that it's depleting the nation's supply of the very building blocks of ammunition - brass and lead.

I personally don't believe either case to be true. I think there are a lot of short-sighted consumers who have decided that the middle of an ammo shortage is the perfect time to stockpile several years' worth of ammo, at inflated prices.

 

[Nathan]

I would love to hear case, primer, powder and bullet makers account for where their inventory and production volumes have gone for the last 2 years. I think we could see some big buys at weak points in the supply by priority groups. Then there is the coincidence vs purposeful...

There is also the perfect storm issue. That is increasing demand plus election with anti-gun speech, an anti-gun winner, post election gun owner directed hate speech, the shootings, the made up or enhanced shooting cover up, the vote without reading the bills talk, and finally NO representatives clearly stating that the proposed legislation is unconstitutional and should be grounds for recalls and impeachment!

Last, I think there has been a rash of scared Americans buying what they won't use. I have a friend wanting 10 AR's willing tho pay $1200-$1400 each for $800 guns. Now he wants ammo by the 1000's! I think similar is happening with reloading components. People are buying what they will never use!

Who is buying powder and primers? Are they going to be on Craig's list soon?

 

[DPris]

Considering the .22 rimfire is America's most popular recreational caliber, why's it so hard to believe that people are simply buying it all up as soon as it's made?
Why the necessity to create government conspiracy?
Why the necessity to create indiotic rumors?

No domestic .22 rimfire maker has decreased production.
Given the caliber is their most popular, why on earth would anybody think they would?

They're running full bore, just give it time to slow the market demand & catch up.
Bottom line: PEOPLE ARE JUST BUYING FASTER THAN IT CAN BE MADE.
Period.
Denis

 

[kdemers58]

What about all the stupid reality tv programs that show all these hoarders planning on all the disasters that are going to happen telling everyone how great 22lr are and how many more of them you can hoard in a limited amount of space i saw one with at least 200 50cal ammo cans full of 22lr lets get all the rest buying more 22 shells.

 

[Dashunde]

Ok, so we shoot more 22 than anything else, probably by a lot. Thats widely known and accepted.
However, a huge number of us have stopped shooting 22 and just about everything else.
I havent let a round fly in months and my local outdoor range is almost vacant every time I swing by on a nice day...very unusual.

They say theyre producing the same or more, we generally say we're buying and shooting less...yet the shelves are always bare...it doesnt add up.

Can it possibly be that a small number of folks who are still shooting along with those who are hoarding/reselling is enough to soak up almost all of the production from Federal, CCI, and Remngton? REALLY??

The old timer at my Walmart says they are not receiving ammo in the same quantities that they used to.
So where is it then?

 

[ScottRiqui]

Can it possibly be that a small number of folks who are still shooting along with those who are hoarding/reselling is enough to soak up almost all of the production from Federal, CCI, and Remngton? REALLY??

I can believe it - I've seen single auctions on Gunbroker for larger quantities of .22lr than I've shot in my entire life.

It's not surprising that Wal-Mart isn't getting as much as they used to - when people *everywhere* are buying more than normal, there's less to go around.

 

[berettaprofessor]

I've said it before and will repeat myself; Most of the ammo is gone because the demand exceeded the supply. The 22LR is gone because it is a versatile hunting round for small game and people are worried that the apocalypse is coming.

(It's also cheap for practice and easy to transport and store).

I don't see what's so exciting here...it's just like 2008-2009 in my area. I couldn't buy ammo for months then either. That's how I knew to stock up when the supply was good.

 

[BigD_in_FL]

I havent let a round fly in months and my local outdoor range is almost vacant every time I swing by on a nice day...very unusual.

They say theyre producing the same or more, we generally say we're buying and shooting less...yet the shelves are always bare...it doesnt add up.

You can't understand that we added almost 50,000,000 new gun owners in that last 8 months or so?

That's a LOT of ammo that needs to be added to the supply chain, and 22 is high in the list, but not THAT high

 

[Dashunde]

We may have whole bunch of new gun owners, but few of them are shooting.

Do they really think the manufacturers are just going to up and quit making it or that some law will suddenly attack the 22LR?

Sorry, I'm ranting at the persistent stupidity of it...or at the lack of production, whichever the case may really be.

 

[ScottRiqui]

Check out Gunbroker - look at completed auctions, search for ".22 lr", and limit the search to the "ammunition" category. I don't know if this direct link will work, but you can try it.

Auction after auction after auction of 5,000, 10,000 and even 15,000 round lots of .22lr. Every single one of those auctions represents more .22lr than many gun shops routinely keep in stock. The resellers have effectively inserted themselves as another step in the chain between the factory and the end consumer.

 

[DPris]

Dash, if you are absolutely determined to ignore the truth, then there's no point in even trying to discuss it further with you.

Several of us have told you what the deal is, but if you refuse to accept it, then you'll just have to go on living in your shadowy conspiracy world.
There is no lack of production, but if you think you know better, you're welcome to your little corner of the universe.
Denis

 

[SHE3PDOG]

It is definitely graduated beyond a conspiracy theory that the DHS is at least partly responsible for the ammo shortage, but I would like to see how open the manufacturers are on admitting to this.

http://thefiringline.com/forums/showthread.php?t=517074

Read the parts posted by me. The DHS buy has NOTHING to do with the ammo shortage. They routinely buy contracts for fixed price ammo over an extended period of time for an undefined amount.

 

[22-rimfire]

You can't understand that we added almost 50,000,000 new gun owners in that last 8 months or so?

50 Million new gun owners? You must be referring to NICs checks. NICs checks do not neccessarily demonstrate 50 million NEW gun owners.

I think folks are just buying up the supply as it is produced and they are buying in larger quantities (when they have the opportunity) than they would normally because they have seen the bare shelves just like everyone else has.

Government orders could affect centerfire ammunition production as materials and capacity is focused on fulfilling those orders.

 

[jnichols2]

The old timer at my Walmart says they are not receiving ammo in the same quantities that they used to. 
So where is it then?

Same at Academy. But go to any gun show and they all have stacks of it. Look at GunBroker.com, lots of ammo. Both have very high prices.

It seems the "entrepeneurs" found ways to siphon off ammo ahead of the big box stores.

 

[Tom Servo]

I'm on the retail side of it, and here are the causes I'm seeing:

1. Every time there's a shipment of ammunition, you've got a small group of individuals demanding to buy all of it. Whether they're flipping or hoarding it, I don't know. The effect is the same. If you let them have their way, they create scarcity.
2. That scarcity perpetuates itself. If the casual buyer thinks ammunition is hard to get, he's willing to go to secondary sources (ie. gun shows) and pay stupid prices for it. The internet rumor-mongering doesn't help that.
3. While manufacturers have increased workload and supply, there are logistical limits, such as factory infrastructure and supply of raw components. While they've added shifts, they're not going to hire a huge new workforce and invest in new facilities and equipment to cover a temporary spike in demand. Once the panic dies down, they'd be stuck with that equipment, and employees would have to be laid off.

 

[SHE3PDOG]

The internet rumor-mongering doesn't help that

This is especially important to understand because many people, on both the right and left side of the political field, buy into the hype from both mass media and second rate news sources. While the left, in general, seems to be portraying gun owners as irresponsible, paranoid nut jobs, the right, in general, seems to be portraying the left as tyrannical, oppressive, and potentially dangerous enemies.

Many gun rights advocates instill fear into gun owners via conspiracies just as much as anti-gun rights advocates instill fear into their followers through demonizing firearms and their owners.