I concede I am not knowledgable enough to say how much pressure increase will occur with bullet setback in a rifle.
I'm setting that aside,with a shrug.I don't know.
How physically full is the cartridge case with powder at the charge weight used?
It has been my experience that with the powders I use(not 2460) when I am at a max or near max load the powder fill is to the base of the neck.Sometimes,even up into the neck a bit.I recall using a drop tube with one load.
A 69 gr boat tail at 2.260 intrudes into the powder space.You can compress powder some.A little bit.But after that,it becomes pretty solid.
So,I wonder how far a bullet will be set back by the bolt coming forward given the neck tension plus the support of the powder against the bullet base.
I'm not saying I know the answer.What is the load density of the OP's load?
What could possibly be: Insufficient shoulder setback in sizing,and the "grey zone" where tolerances may permit firing in a partial battery situation.Maybe.And the loads were such,that the smaller surface area of steel allowed setback.Partial bolt failure.Maybe.
The extractor was still in place.The receiver does not look like there was a major case fail.There is not evidence of gas blowing things apart.There is,IMO,NOT a catastrophic cartridge case failure.
And,if this rifle were mechanically sound,with the lugs fully locked,the lockup(bolt and receiver extension lugs) can take ANY OVERPRESSURE short of case failure.
Bullet setback,overload,etc increasing pressure don't add up for me if the case did not blow out.Had the case blown,you would see it at the extractor.
It still bothers me that the gas rings are visible through the hole in the bolt carrier with the bolt fully extended.That is approx 1/8 in different in length than my intact BCG.
The OP's bolt appears to be about 1/8 in longer than my intact bolt.
Which leads me to believe the OP's bolt is not intact.
Mystery!!