I think 6 months is an optimistic estimate,here's why:We are all seeing some of the insane prices on AR/AK type guns going back down,at least in my area,which will lead people that couldn't afford a $1200 AR15 to go buy one now that they're ONLY $800.Then,they need ammo,right?Which will serve to deepen the lack of supply available,resulting in a continuing shortage...Just a theory...
Who Owns the Supply Chain?
- Thread starter BillCA
- Start date
I agree that 6 months is a bit optimistic for some calibers. AR15 manufacturers still have 6-9 months or more of backorders to to fill and more orders coming in daily - which means that .223/5.56 will remain in short supply as new owners stock up. And the people buying AR15s aren't settling for the usual 150-200rds. They want to rat hole at least 500rds.
I don't see the panic buying slowing for pistol ammo until the shelves are so full for so long that folks no longer fear a shortage. As unemployment rises people will continue to see a need to keep buying guns to defend their homes and property. All of those will need ammo. As a side note the local sporting goods stores can't keep tactical shotguns in stock and is reduced to cleaning out whatever pistol and rifle ammo Wal-Mart manages to get to stock their own store shelves.
I don't see the panic buying slowing for pistol ammo until the shelves are so full for so long that folks no longer fear a shortage. As unemployment rises people will continue to see a need to keep buying guns to defend their homes and property. All of those will need ammo. As a side note the local sporting goods stores can't keep tactical shotguns in stock and is reduced to cleaning out whatever pistol and rifle ammo Wal-Mart manages to get to stock their own store shelves.
Cerberus Capital Management owns Chrysler and most of GMAC.
Cerberus bought Remington Arms Corporation, and paid just north of $360 million. In that $360 million was about $250 million +/- in debt. It'll probably take a while for that to be paid off.
In the mean time, Remington is improving their product lines, with the addition of AR15 platforms, and a new shot gun.
Something related to the Supply Chain.....is the concept and practice of "just in time inventory/shipping"
With the age of computer management many companies time their purchases and delivery's to maximize cash flow and taxes on inventory.....unlike years ago when warehouses full of product waiting to be sold. Glitches in the supply chain today are more volatile. If raw materials become short, it shows up faster on the shelves because of short manufacturing lead times. A failure by one sub-contractor in the supply chain can have a chain reaction effect throughout the entire system.
With the age of computer management many companies time their purchases and delivery's to maximize cash flow and taxes on inventory.....unlike years ago when warehouses full of product waiting to be sold. Glitches in the supply chain today are more volatile. If raw materials become short, it shows up faster on the shelves because of short manufacturing lead times. A failure by one sub-contractor in the supply chain can have a chain reaction effect throughout the entire system.
Six months is extremely optimistic. Although it's slowed down a little, people are still buying guns at an amazing rate, and need ammo for them. The ones that can't get factory are thinking reloading might be the way to go and are now sitting on equipment with no components. I don't see primers or powder purchasing to slow down for a VERY long time.
The buying will continue at this pace if things stay as they are as far as gun legislation is concerned. Anything that upsets the current climate i.e. a new war, anti-gun talk on Capitol Hill, manufacturer layoffs in the industry, etc. will just make it worse than it is now. There are so many new owners that the production rates of '07 or '08 couldn't begin to keep up with it.
The buying will continue at this pace if things stay as they are as far as gun legislation is concerned. Anything that upsets the current climate i.e. a new war, anti-gun talk on Capitol Hill, manufacturer layoffs in the industry, etc. will just make it worse than it is now. There are so many new owners that the production rates of '07 or '08 couldn't begin to keep up with it.
If this is indeed the case, looks like we don't need bailouts for economic stimulus, looks like what we need are more ammo companies; or increased ammo production, which would mean more employees.
Who would have thought that the true solution to the world economic recession of '09 was solved by new gun buyers?
If demand for ammo is far exceeding supply, this looks like an opportunity for someone to step up to the plate and make some money by filling that demand; especially if this is a sustainable demand.
I know that I have a fair inventory of ammo and reloading components, but by no means a "lifetime supply". Also note that if ammo and components were readily available today, a lot of folks would be shooting more today; note the number of posts, on TFL in numerous threads, that talk about cutting back or outright stopping shooting these days due to lack of available ammo and components.
I mentioned this a few days ago, in another thread, that I was told in a gun shop that there is no .380 ammo in the state of Alaska yet that same gun shop was selling two Ruger LCP daily.
I believe that the demand for ammo will continue to be much higher than it was in the past. Even those who have a fair stockpile are going to be a bit gun shy of letting it get lower when ammo and components are available again so will begin buying again as the ammo and components become available.
Really how many, "I never need to buy ammo again!" threads are there compared to, "Where is all of the ammo?" threads?
Double Naught Spy
New member
LOL, you make it sound like 1-2K is a lot of ammo. You want us to be shooting 100 rounds per month?
So what you are saying is that those folks who used to not buy ammo by the case would just go back to their regular buying practices, then we would not have a problem?
Shane Tuttle
Staff
I'm willing to bet the average gunowner doesn't shoot more than 100rds/mo.
If that's the case, why are the majority of the threads that gripe about shortages are started by newbies?
Actually, I agree with you. We have new gunowners entering the scene at a massive rate and veterans in the field adding to their collection.Back to the thead: Where does HS Precision and Heckler & Koch fit in? Are they privately owned companies still?
Exactly. I think just about everyone that enjoys this hobby, whether new to it, or around it for a very long time, have redefined their definition of how much is enough. Doesn't matter whether it's factory loaded, or components, everyone I know and just about everyone on every forum I read has plans to have more on hand than they used to. I know I do.
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+1 on revising the minimum acceptable ammo/component inventory up.
I used to be happy keeping one or two .22 bulk packs from Walmart around. I knew I could use it up and replace it on the next trip to Walmart. It was the same with other popular calibers with shooters.
The past few months have been interesting because now the game is to see IF Walmart has something like .22, 12 ga buck, or pistol ammo in stock. So now I want to have a nice stash of .22 bulk packs on hand even if I'm not consuming them.
Pretty much any standard military/police ammunition as well as .22 fly off the shelves at Walmart at this time. When Walmart can keep .22 bulk and .38 Special in stock I figure the rush will have slowed down some.
I used to be happy keeping one or two .22 bulk packs from Walmart around. I knew I could use it up and replace it on the next trip to Walmart. It was the same with other popular calibers with shooters.
The past few months have been interesting because now the game is to see IF Walmart has something like .22, 12 ga buck, or pistol ammo in stock. So now I want to have a nice stash of .22 bulk packs on hand even if I'm not consuming them.
Pretty much any standard military/police ammunition as well as .22 fly off the shelves at Walmart at this time. When Walmart can keep .22 bulk and .38 Special in stock I figure the rush will have slowed down some.
Six months may indeed be optimistic. It was a number I pulled out of 'thin air'. It was an optimistic guesstimate.
I have something north of 2500 rounds of 9mm to feed 7 pistols. I don't shoot every week, nor compete any more, so this is a good "rainy day" stockpile for me. I'm not buying more 9mm ammo until the prices/supply even out.
I know for a fact there are shooters sitting on a 5-10k supply of ammo in their garage and whining about not being able to buy ammo to shoot at the range. Isn't that why you stocked up in the first place? If some of these folks would use up a little of their own stocks it would help lower the demand.
That said, it's a free country and people are free to make their own decisions.
I have something north of 2500 rounds of 9mm to feed 7 pistols. I don't shoot every week, nor compete any more, so this is a good "rainy day" stockpile for me. I'm not buying more 9mm ammo until the prices/supply even out.
I know for a fact there are shooters sitting on a 5-10k supply of ammo in their garage and whining about not being able to buy ammo to shoot at the range. Isn't that why you stocked up in the first place? If some of these folks would use up a little of their own stocks it would help lower the demand.
That said, it's a free country and people are free to make their own decisions.