This Stat ought to scare people

Webleymkv

New member
Polls are easily massaged to give a pre-determined outcome and do no always directly correlate with the reality of politics. We've been shown poll numbers like this for years now, and at least at the federal level very little has come to pass.

A poll can be easily manipulated, as 44 AMP pointed out, depending on who you poll and how you ask the questions. For example, in recent years many polls are infamous for drastically over-sampling Democrats and under sampling Republicans. Historically, the split of people who vote Democrat to Republican to Independent/Swing Voter are about 40% Democrat, 40% Republican, and 20% Independent/Swing, but in many of these polls Democrats will be sampled in the mid-to-high 40's while Republicans are sampled in the high 20 to low 30's, that's not an accurate representation of median political ideology nationwide. Also, the demographic and area where polls are conducted can have a large outcome on the result of said poll. If you ask a question of primarily young, minority voters in California, you're likely to get very different answers than if you ask primarily elderly, white voters in Wyoming.

Likewise, how you ask the question will have a lot to do with the responses you get. For example, in poll after poll the majority of respondents are in favor of "background checks" but you often find that that favor drops off sharply when the specifics of what a new "background check" law might entail. Once people find out that they'll be criminals if the loan a family member a gun or try out someone else's gun at the range without first going through a "background check" the new law suddenly seems like less of a good idea.

Finally, the results of a poll don't necessarily correlate to what a given politician will do. The only federal office that is subject to a nationwide election is that of President. Congressmen and Senators are subject only to elections in their districts and states. I can pretty much guarantee you that Congressman Smith or Senator Jones is a whole lot more interested in the opinions of the constituents in his/her particular district than the result of some nationwide poll. A more accurate measure would be to compile polling data by individual districts, but that's a lot more involved and doesn't make for a good headline or soundbite so I don't expect the media to do it.

You also have to take voter enthusiasm into account. Just because someone answers that they support or oppose something in a poll doesn't mean that it will be the foremost issue on their mind when they cast their vote, assuming they vote at all. Historically, people who oppose gun control, on the whole, feel much more strongly about it and are more likely to to vote for or against a certain candidate because of it than people who support gun control. Most people are not single-issue voters and among those who are, gun control isn't usually the single issue. I suspect that the party currently in power wants to talk about gun control right now (or the myriad of other #TheCurrentThing issues we've been bombarded with of late) because they very much don't want to talk about product shortages, inflation, and record high gas prices as, on their handling of those issues, they aren't looked upon very favorably by most voters.
 

44 AMP

Staff
TO complicate things even further, there are a percentage of people who will intentionally lie about things, just to "screw up the poll".

And others who will be less that accurate in their responses, BECAUSE it is a poll.

And, I will proudly admit to being one of those people about some things. Especially guns.

I will be honest about my opinions on the issue, but absolutely will not tell some random phone caller, or "poll taker" in person about my personal private matters. Same way I won't discuss my "home security system" with someone on the phone that I don't know, don't trust and usually doesn't give a name that matches my caller ID. Even (and especially,) when they offer me a system "for free"....

I am also always amused at people taking surveys about teens and sex, seriously. Though its been a long, long time, I can still remember what I and many, many other teen age boys would have answered to a poll about that...
it would be "yes! am having sex every day!! and more often on weekends!!!" etc., etc.,

OF COURSE we're going to lie to the poll, its one of the things we do for fun!

And you know the poller know that is going to happen, so I'm sure they "discount" a certain percentage of answers.

The questions then becomes, how do they determine what percent, and more importantly, how many honest answers do you think they throw out when they do that??

I spend some years in the chemical field, and one of the more important things was sampling. When mixing a tank of chemicals, you NEED accurate, REPRESENTATIVE samples or you simply don't know what you've got.

This is virtually impossible when polling people. First, people are not homogenously mixed. Ideas, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors are not uniformly distributed. Taking a grab sample from widely dispersed points does not give you an accurate result, though it may seem to, it doesn't.

Next point is, unlike chemicals, people LIE.

Taking samples from random points no matter how "carefully calculated" to hopefully provide inclusion of every factor does not do that, unless the mixture is completely blended and mixed into a homogenous whole. And even then, errors can occur.

Assuming sample results from an uneven blend are accurate and apply to the entire batch is a mistake, and telling the world your results are accurate is another lie.

Am reminded of a humorous rendition of the "4 out of 5 dentists recommend" line. It had 5 guys in medical garb (we assume the dentists) and each one in turn says "Yes", until they get to the last guy, and a squirrel runs up his leg and bites him, and he yells "Nooo!!"
so there you have it, 4 out of 5 recommend.....

:rolleyes:
 

Mainah

New member
Personally I believe that the more a poll deviates from what I believe the more likely I think it's flawed.
 

TDL

New member
TO complicate things even further, there are a percentage of people who will intentionally lie about things, just to "screw up the poll".

worse and more pervasive is the known, peer reviewed documented, effect where people will answer questions in ways they think is how others feel, or will please the person surveying or polling them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social-desirability_bias
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Response_bias
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquiescence_bias

The poll created biases are why you see a constant drop in self reported gun ownership, when the likelihood is that gun ownership is up around 60%.

Also one must keep in mind these same poll questions over the long term (last 40 to 50 years) show the public wants less gun control. A vast majority of Americas wanted a total handgun ban 40 years ago.

Also if you take polls on gun control immediately following an event that gets wall to wall media coverage, you get huge increases in support for gun control which often drops to minority support in a few months. It is demonstrably cherry picking to poll right after an event or pair of events.

Early 2008 Washington Post poll on handgun ban just before Heller came down showed 83% of DC supported handgun ban. Washington Post exact same question 11 years later showed 52% of DC supported ban. WaPost rand a piece on that 52%, saying "a majority of Washingtonians support a handgun ban" and did not mention in entire article any aspect of trend, and that support for a ban had plummeted from 83 to 52, even in a city that is virtually entirely Dem voters.
 

44 AMP

Staff
A vast majority of Americas wanted a total handgun ban 40 years ago.

So some poll said....:rolleyes:

40 years ago was 1982. I was there, don't remember any such "vast majority" wanting a total handgun ban, at all.

Take a poll about radical Islam done on Sept 10 2001 and you'll get one result. Take the same poll and do it on Oct 1 2001 and you'll get a different result. Ask the same things, the same way today, and you'll get yet another, different result.

About every time you hear ANYONE say the "vast majority of American's want"...everything after that is bull. The vast majority of Americans don't agree on anything in detail and very few things in general. We're a contentious lot, :D
 

HiBC

New member
Lemmings depend on the approval of the crowd they are with to navigate ,dumb and happy,to their Cliff of Doom.

Our Founders did not write the Declaration of Independence and Constitution to serve a comforting thumb and blanket to an infantile public.

The word "democracy" is over pumped, implying that smartphone swipes and agenda driven media polls will reflect the popular "will of the People" .

Start with a school system that has an agenda, dumb down and indoctrinate the young and addict then to their smart phone, spice it with the ideaology of youth, and you have a malleable force with Political Power. Pass out the Che Guevara tee shirts!!

Supplement that with "Fear of Being Canceled" on Twitter,FB.etc. For some,its equivalent to Fear of Death.

Then we have had the SCOTUS in part composed of some members who scoff off their Oath to Uphold and Defend the Constitution, and take on the Narcissist role of being "The Divine Elite Who Shall Shape Society"

Well,BS. Separation of powers! Congress writes and passes Law. (Before you respond explaining the Executive Branch,etc, spare me! I know! This is already a long post . I'm not going to pre-empt your every argument)

Remember Folks, These Poll Wavers seek to exploit "Democracy" Democracy is Mob Rule. It fails. We are a Republic ,built on the Foundation of a Constitution. That Constitution includes the tool of democratic process.

But the notion of poll waving activists driving policy should be nothing more than a cross breeze in the Wind.
 

44 AMP

Staff
Judging the wind correctly, and making adjustments to allow for it's effect is important to shooters, and a whole lot of other folks.

A strong political wind, from any direction, is as dangerous as any storm in nature, though the effect is usually less obvious.

I see no reason to take a turn at the handcrank of the pollster's wind machine so that they can make a buck.
 

Wag

New member
A couple of things come to mind here:

1. The poll sample is NOT random. You cannot get reliable results in a non-random poll and any online poll is not going to be random. You'll get a good idea of the kind of people that read the web site, but not a good idea of how the general population thinks.

2. Sample sizes do matter but beyond a certain number of people, it doesn't change the outcome much. Minimum required sample size is about 1,200 people and yes, it tells the opinions of millions of people, believe it or not. More than that is not particularly informative. Of course, it has to be a random poll, yada yada yada.

Everything else above seems to be spot on, for the most part.

--Wag--
 

stagpanther

New member
Of all the things that threaten gun ownership I don't think background checks, age requirements etc are the biggest threats. BY FAR the biggest threat is so-called red-flag "mental health" checks. What that really comes down to is you're asking law enforcement to somehow figure out psychology and apply it to revoking firearms. This will NEVER work, and why the GOP keeps touting it is beyond me.

I can tell you why it won't work. I have been suffering from a chronic illness for almost 15 years. I hurt to some degree almost all the time. A typical visit to the doctor goes like this: a nurse intern walks in and asks generic questions, how you feeling today, etc and what did you come for. Your responses get immediately entered into a computerized "doctoring for dummies" database. You don't know what they enter nor have the right to review on demand as far as I know. That stuff stays on a permanent record and follows you around till the end of your days. I generally respond with something like "I'm OK, considering, but not great."

What happens is quickly they will direct their questions towards issues of depression and violence, mostly towards yourself--especially if they have failed to successfully diagnose and treat the medical cause of your illness; this starts the "it's all in your head, you're imagining things" entries into your record. Health care has become a money-making machine in this country, I'd go as far as to say that truly helping people get affordably well is inherently a conflict of interest. It's like going into your local garage needing an oil change--and being told that your car service needs to be out-sourced to the manufacturer for a new engine and transmission.
 

mehavey

New member
Quote:
Remember... Both Mobs & Lemmings once energized -- don't let facts stand in their way.
You paid too much attention to Disney movies and as a result, made a reflexive comment.

My father was a deputy sheriff in Illinois in the 30's.
Having later survived as a B17 squadron commander out of England,
he told me that the only thing that ever really scared him... was a mob...

"... It has no brain'"

I think I'll stick with his actual experience,
and suggest others might consider it as well.






postcriptum: Dad also lived through another little rush to the cliff by the unthinking... prohibition.
 
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44 AMP

Staff
Also bear in mind there is no firearm in the majority of US homes.

In the midst of a discussion over how flawed polls can be, how the statistics they generate and how conclusions based on that information can seriously far off the mark, here is yet another example, a purported fact, dropped into the conversation, with no source given, and no context to ascertain its relevance to the discussion.

Assuming (yeah, I know about "assume":rolleyes:) that it is a valid fact, that gun owners are a minority, and there is no gun in the majority of US homes, what does that tell us???

NOTHING specific or useful that I can see.

Consider this,

"You see, in this world, there's two kinds of people, my friend; those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
--Clint Eastwood as the Man with No Name in The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (1966)

I'm sure that my home would be counted in the group of "no firearms in the home". Yes, I have been asked. And I answered honestly, and truthfully.

I've been asked, "Do you have /is there a firearm in your home?"
and I have answered,
"I do not have a firearm in my home."
and my answer is factual, truthful, and honest. I do not have a firearm in my home. :D
 
stagpanther said:
Of all the things that threaten gun ownership I don't think background checks, age requirements etc are the biggest threats. BY FAR the biggest threat is so-called red-flag "mental health" checks. What that really comes down to is you're asking law enforcement to somehow figure out psychology and apply it to revoking firearms. This will NEVER work, and why the GOP keeps touting it is beyond me.
Red flag laws don't ask law enforcement to play psychologist. All law enforcement does is serve the order, which is issued by a judge.

The overwhelming problem with red flag laws is that the initial proceeding (I won't dignify it by calling it a "hearing") is ex parte, which means that the poor schlemp who is being accused of being a wife beater and general menace to society knows nothing about it and has no opportunity to defend him/herself or to be represented by counsel. I, personally, think that's an unconstitutional violation of due process. I think the "red flag" process is possibly in violation of the 4th Amendment, certainly in violation of the 5th amendment, and possibly in violation of the 6th Amendment. The first the subject of one of these orders will generally know about it is when the police show up and confiscate his/her firearms.

Proponents of these laws argue that due process is observed because there has to be a hearing with (typically) two weeks, at which the subject of the order can argue why he/she should be allowed to have their guns back. But the process puts the cart before the horse, and leaves the subject of the order in the position of having to prove a negative, rather than requiring the person who made the complaint prove their accusations in a fair, open, two-party hearing.

Here's an early example of how badly these red flag laws can be abused:

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/01/...ag-order-petition-against-csu-police-officer/

Susan Holes was the mother of a young man who left home with a knife, saying that he was going to kill his brother. He was stopped by a police officer, who did everything possible to talk the kid into dropping the knife. The body cam footage is available on YouTube -- the cop back-pedaled at least 100 feet, constantly asking the kid to put down the knife. Ultimately, the kid charged the cop, who shot then him. A female officer off to one side also shot the assailant.

The kid's mother perjured herself to get a red flag order issued against the cop who shot her son. A year later, she was convicted of perjury -- at which point she went on the lam.

https://www.reporterherald.com/2022...erjury-attempt-to-influence-a-public-servant/

Yeah -- it's a great system.
 

44 AMP

Staff
The kid's mother perjured herself to get a red flag order issued against the cop who shot her son. A year later, she was convicted of perjury -- at which point she went on the lam.

You left out the "best part", the way she perjured herself.

In order to have standing to request the red flag order, she claimed that she and the cop "had a child in common". :eek:

This term is generally understood to mean either a biological relationship, or a social one where both parties are involved in raising the child (such as stepparent or live in unmarried partner.

Her claim of having a child in common was that he was her son, and the cop shot him, so they both had that "child" in common!

The courts, ultimately, disagreed... and charged her.
 
Mrs. Holmes was clearly a woman on a mission. Unfortunately, her mission was to destroy the life of a police officer who went far beyond the minimum to de-escalate the confrontation with her son, who was intent on committing suicide by cop.

This article lays out a time line: https://www.coloradoan.com/story/ne...san-holmes-colorado-red-flag-case/4667136002/

The time line omits the fact that she went on the lam for a year to avoid being sentenced for perjury.

The point is that this case is a poster child for how these red flag laws can be abused.
 

HiBC

New member
Quote:
Also bear in mind there is no firearm in the majority of US homes.
In the midst of a discussion over how flawed polls can be, how the statistics they generate and how conclusions based on that information can seriously far off the mark, here is yet another example, a purported fact, dropped into the conversation, with no source given, and no context to ascertain its relevance to the discussion.

Assuming (yeah, I know about "assume") that it is a valid fact, that gun owners are a minority, and there is no gun in the majority of US homes, what does that tell us???

NOTHING specific or useful that I can see.

What may have had an effect on the number of households with guns is the astonishing number of boating accidents of late.


Remember the Constitution ,and all of the People who swear an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution, are not one shuckey darn about what "The Majority" thinks.

The Foundation is about the Creator Given Rights of the Minority of One Individual Human Being standing alone.

If He or She were the only gun owner in the USA, as things stand today, Their 2A Rights would be protected by the Constitution.

Unfortunately, that Right CAN be lost.
 

hikingman

New member
Who wants the free responses (about my lifestyle or choices) in a poll over a phone or device connected to the web?

Do I want to be used for data? No.

Do I want to answer questions provided by an automated voice/ robot? No.

I'm well paid (locally) for marketing survey data- several times each year. Offer me money to participate in your survey/ poll, or go ask someone else to give you opinions for no money.

Is the source willing to reveal what the poll is being used for, and who the principals are of the corporation funding the poll?

Would I choose to help those I don't agree with collect data for a poll? No thanks.
 
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44 AMP

Staff
while I'm ok with "name unavailable" on my caller ID, because I respect the fact that some people want privacy, I detest the calls where my caller ID says one thing and then they say they are someone else. Zero credibility, right there, for me...

One of them even used the name of a place I had worked at for 30 years, but the guy on the phone had a sing-song accent, background noise indicated he was working from a call center (no idea if it physically in the US, or not) and he wanted to tell me about the "new' final expense insurance....:mad:

I also get call from groups with noble ideals (on the surface, anyway) asking for donations to support veterans, breast cancer, firefighter, the police, etc.

BUT the moment their pitch gets to "we support politicians who...." they're not getting even one penny from me.

And the other automatic "NO" from me is those unidentified or MISidentified friendly folk who want to give me a home security system, at no cost!! :rolleyes:

Unidentifed caller wants my opinion on gun control, I'll tell them, no problem, and if they don't hang up, I'll give them chapter and verse.

IF they ask if I own a gun, I'll tell them the truth about that, too. I do not own A gun. next question....

I didn't fail English, "a" is an article, denoting ONE specific individual object. I don't own A gun! I own several dozen:D, but that's none of their business, and I'm not going to tell them about it.

sadly, the tragic boating accident won't work for me, don't have a boat. Lost it in the divorce....as Dr McCoy said, she took everything but the Bones....:D
 
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