Hey y'all..
As to the original question, I suppose I should clarify my statement that Andrew refererred to. In a sense, arms evolution sounds very much biological evolution to me. Basically, yeah, you have your tinkerers, always trying to come up with something better, be it a little kludgy-fix (forward bolt assist on an AR), or a radically new concept (brass-cased cartriges in a self-loading action). So we're always getting this huge array of new stuff coming down the pike.
Both conflict and the marketplace (and legalisms!) then, seems to be, play the part of natural selection, clearing the field and letting the most successful designs proliferate. That's what I was referring to when I said necessity dictates the course of development -- bolt rifles (comparatively) sucked at the close-range firefights of the 30s-40s, little bullethoses worked, so the trend of development moved towards little and lots of firepower. And hence, the day-to-day weapons you see built and proliferating over the next century will be more dependent on the task required of them than any single technical innovation, I think.
(BTW, re the powder argument -- Great point, but I think I'd give the nod more to the metallic cased, self-contained cartridge than the propellent. That was what really started practical repeating arms, I'd say -- Colt 1973, for example, or the early Henrys and Winchesters. Both pretty much set the stage for designs lasting to this day, but were black powder weapons. Heck, wasn't the Nagant originally BP to?)