M4 and reliability: Debunking the piston myth

[theinvisibleheart]

Dobe, re: post survivorship bias

survivorship bias is not exactly new concept. It's pretty old and is covered both at undergraduate and graduate level.

At graduate level, it's accepted and most papers, when analyzing data subject to it, do mention it, esp. when it's subject to peer review.

However, if you have the ability to disprove it, LOL, I think you will win Nobel Prize for significant contribution to mankind in the field of mathematics and change the world of statistics, LOL.

Somehow, I don't think you can, LOL.

FWIW, survivorship bias is quite often estimated, LOL.

Quote:
it sounds like you still don't understand what survivorship bias is.
I absolutely understand what it is, and you are using SB as a safety net the same way that a 1st year stats major would.

Prove the relevance. SB is a ghost, if you cannot attach numbers to it. That is the problem with SB.

 

[Dobe]

survivorship bias is not exactly new concept. It's pretty old and is covered both at undergraduate and graduate level.

At graduate level, it's accepted and most papers, when analyzing data subject to it, do mention it, esp. when it's subject to peer review.

However, if you have the ability to disprove it, LOL, I think you will win Nobel Prize for significant contribution to mankind in the field of mathematics and change the world of statistics, LOL.

Somehow, I don't think you can, LOL.

FWIW, survivorship bias is quite often estimated, LOL.

You missed that one. No one is trying to disprove your SB. Just know that it is a black hole for those who do not either

1. know
2. or can't find relevant data to support the SB

SB is the great black hole used far too often when attempting to disprove a theory. SB is valid, if used properly by those knowing what they are doing in the field.

This will be my last post on this thread, as it really is going no where.

 

[theinvisibleheart]

Dobe, re: post: survivorship bias

I don't claim to be founder of survivorship bias.

It's something I know from statistics. FWIW/BTW, that doesn't mean I'm a statistic expert, LOL.

In studies involving statistical model and subject to survivorship bias, survivorship bias and size/impact of survivorship bias will most probably be mentioned, if the study is subject to peer review.

Mentioning of survivorship bias is very common in performance studies since they tend to be subject to it because you can't interview those who are demised.

Senior Member

Join Date: June 28, 2004
Posts: 1,097
Quote:
survivorship bias is not exactly new concept. It's pretty old and is covered both at undergraduate and graduate level.

At graduate level, it's accepted and most papers, when analyzing data subject to it, do mention it, esp. when it's subject to peer review.

However, if you have the ability to disprove it, LOL, I think you will win Nobel Prize for significant contribution to mankind in the field of mathematics and change the world of statistics, LOL.

Somehow, I don't think you can, LOL.

FWIW, survivorship bias is quite often estimated, LOL.
You missed that one. No one is trying to disprove your SB. Just know that it is a black hole for those who do not either
know
or can't find relevant data to support the SB
__________________

 

[theinvisibleheart]

Chindo18Z, re: post

sorry, but it's my understanding that most of armed forces of developed world(in plain English, Europe/Japan) are going toward gas piston system and using it in operation.

Much of impetus behind HK416 came from US and it's use is increasing, esp. after Norway adopted it.

BTW, if past operational usage is the indicator, then everybody would still be using bolt gun(Moisin-Nagant, Lee-Enfield, Mauser, etc.), LOL.

Think! LOL

Quote:
And some of the most vocal cries for replacement of M4 comes from elite units.
Wrong. Almost everyone out here actually killing folks has gone to the M4 platform while discarding G36, SIG, AUG, AK, etc. There is certainly no institutional dissatisfaction with the M4A1 among US SOF nor a clamor for a replacement. With all due respect, you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about regarding this point.

As a longstanding member of one of the American units you've referenced, I've worked shoulder to shoulder (in combat and training) with most of the other "elite" units you have casually name-dropped. GROM, Delta, Singapore Army, IDF, KSK, AUS SAS, Afghans, Iraqis, etc.

Quote:
Regarding accuracy, I think you don't understand how big silhouette or human torso is.
Your statement shows a complete lack of understanding as to what happens in a firefight vs. a flat range. It's like listening to a virgin pontificating about sex...entertaining, but dreadfully off the mark.

Quote:
You can't understand small arms by experience alone.
Conversely, you'll not gain serious understanding of military small arms through the reading of design principle textbooks or Wikipedia entries either. It actually helps to go out and shoot a few folks who are firing back at you. I trust end-user data (including my own) ahead of the theoretical ruminations of an engineer concerning machine performance. The engineer tells me what he designed the weapon system to do and what performance should be expected. The end user tells me what actually happened when he used the weapon to turn someone's pumpkin into a canoe. It's a holistic approach to selecting the right tool for the job.

Quote:
In general, it's not intelligent to argue things based on:
- I know better because I have done so-so things
- I know better because I have so-so special training
- I know better because I have so-so certification
- I know better because I attended so-so school(s)
It's also not generally intelligent to argue a topic with subject matter experts when you are demonstrably not one of them.

 

[theinvisibleheart]

Chindo18Z, you do realize

Chindo18Z,


you do realize that you are only reinforcing the stereotype of being unable to reason, except by referring to past education/degree/experience/affiliation/etc., do you, LOL?

As a longstanding member of one of the American units you've referenced, I've worked shoulder to shoulder (in combat and training) with most of the other "elite" units you have casually name-dropped. GROM, Delta, Singapore Army, IDF, KSK, AUS SAS, Afghans, Iraqis, etc.

 

[Chindo18Z]

you do realize that you are only reinforcing the stereotype of being unable to reason, except by referring to past education/degree/experience/affiliation/etc., do you, LOL?

What can I say? No slave to fashion, but I know what the ladies like. Your counterpoints are mildly amusing.

Do continue.

Speaking of stereotypes...Didn't I used to take your lunch money?

 

[Quentin2]

theinvisibleheart, I've got to hand it to you, you are a one-man debate team!

Not agreeing with much you say but you sure are persistent. Have you thought of going into politics?

 

[Art Eatman]

One thing about reading through this thread is how it reminds me of the comment about wiping oneself with a wagon wheel: "There ain't no end to it."

IOW, really circular. Let's give it a rest. I don't see where anybody has had any major change of viewpoint...