Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring-Kavanaugh Nominated

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MTT TL

New member
Thomas is old and carries too much weight.
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I like him. He is smart, consistent and loyal. He is only 70. If Trump gets a second term it might a good time to step down, if not he can hang on for at least eleven years easily.
 
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Bartholomew Roberts

Moderator
I find Thomas to be the most intellectually consistent of the justices. I also think he is definitely the most pro-Second.

One thing is for sure, Kennedy’s replacement should help clarify what some of the remaining Heller majority justices are thinking on these cert denials of solid 2A cases.
 
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Glenn E. Meyer

New member
That's true. If Alito and Roberts were not trusting Kennedy, their denial made sense.

If it happens with 3 progun justices, then we know for sure.
 
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TXAZ

New member
I read an article quoting McConnell saying confirmation would come "in the fall".
So that might be before or a little bit after the midterm.
My guess is it will be before ;)
 
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L2R

New member
So, I have always thought Scalia and his pro 2A beliefs kept the needle just right of dead center. His death, I think, moved the needle just over to the other side. So a little was lost with that appointment. (it could have been drastically different I know)

If that is correct, then Kennedy's replacement might bump the needle back. But a moderately 2A judge replacing a neutral judge isn't a huge gain unless they prove to be very pro 2A down the road.

Now if Trump gets to make a 3rd appointment then that would be historical.
 
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zukiphile

New member
MTT TL said:
I like him. He is smart, consistent and loyal. He is only 70. If Trump gets a second term it might a good time to step down, if not he can hang on for at least eleven years easily.
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Thomas is superlative. I see many of his concurring and dissenting opinions from which future courts could draw should they choose to abandon current majority positions.

Age is only a number and I am not a doc. Scalia was 79 and feisty, but also carried far too much weight. I have partners Kennedy's age who don't seem frail and elderly, but Kennedy has had some cardiac problems. Breyer is 79, but he looks as if he is still going strong. These impressions and guesses are worth what you paid to read them, but attrition can be hard to predict with accuracy. Someday it will take Thomas too.
 
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Bartholomew Roberts

Moderator
While I’m hopeful, I wouldn’t assume we are going to get a pro-2A nomination just because of the current President. A lot of horse-trading gets done on Supreme Court nominations. Considering the importance of any member of the Heller majority being replaced, this would be something I plan to discuss with my Senators, even though I’m confident in both of them.
 
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MTT TL

New member
Mike Lee is being floated as strong contender. I don't know his record on guns but imagine if it follows the rest of his leanings he would be an outstanding choice.
 
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TXAZ

New member
I see potentially positive news now and in the next 6 years.
Ginsburg is 85, clearly (one of the most) anti-2nd Amendment, and in 5 years will be the oldest SCOTUS Justice ever. Health wise that is unlikely for her.

If Trump follows his stated list of applicants, the 2nd should enjoy a resurgence with a solid majority on the court.
 
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zukiphile

New member
Bartolomew Roberts said:
While I’m hopeful, I wouldn’t assume we are going to get a pro-2A nomination just because of the current President.
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My anxiety here would be that he sees the Federalist pledge as discharged or satisfied, and looks to consolidate support from some other group.

MTT TL said:
Mike Lee is being floated as strong contender. I don't know his record on guns but imagine if it follows the rest of his leanings he would be an outstanding choice.
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That's correct.

While this board has a particular focus, how one interprets the 2d Am. is not a separate, stand alone issue unrelated to the interpretation of constitutional text and civil rights more generally. Lee's public communication both on how the constitution generally and the 2d Am. specifically are to be understood would make him a fine choice.

I would also imagine that his status as a senator wouldn't make confirmation any less likely.
 
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vicGT

New member
MIT TL said:
Mike Lee is being floated as strong contender. I don't know his record on guns but imagine if it follows the rest of his leanings he would be an outstanding choice.
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I agree, and my understanding is that he is open to being appointed to SCOTUS, and apparently was available last time, as well!
 
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motorhead0922

New member
Trump has his list of 25 potential nominees, and he's been sticking to it. That is, he nominated some of them to lower courts already.

Cruz isn't on the list. Lee is. The problem is, a senator can't vote on his own nomination, can he/she? So if Lee is nominated, that puts the Republican votes down to 50 max. The margin is already too thin. So, I hope Trump doesn't nominate a senator.

If he bumps up a lower court judge, then he'll get to fill that vacancy with his own pick.
 
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rickyrick

New member
Our officials have it easy with the second amendment: all they have to do is say “I support the Second Amendment” then they don’t actually have to support it. In 20 years we will be in the same boat, except more states will have weapons bans that are allowed to stand.
 
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TXAZ

New member
I’d go one further Zukiphile,
Mike Lee is as good as it gets for 2nd Amendment issues for someone *** that can*** be confirmed.
 
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vicGT

New member
motorhead0922 said:
The problem is, a senator can't vote on his own nomination, can he/she?
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Apparently they can, or at least there is nothing in the Senate rules against it, and the Constitution is silent on this issue:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...wn-confirmation-to-supreme-court-if-nominated
and
http://joshblackman.com/blog/2016/12/09/could-senator-sessions-vote-for-his-own-confirmation/

If he bumps up a lower court judge, then he'll get to fill that vacancy with his own pick.
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This is the bigger issue for me. Kennedy is (kind of) gone, so we are "down" by 1 (somewhat) conservative federal jurist. Trump elevates somebody, that doesn't change the number either, so we're still down overall on the federal level. But then he gets to replace the jurist he elevated, so that brings the number of conservative jurists on federal benches back to where it was before Kennedy retired.

Also, the replacement can be somewhat younger, so that's another small gain.
 
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Aguila Blanca

Staff
vicGT said:
This is the bigger issue for me. Kennedy is (kind of) gone, so we are "down" by 1 (somewhat) conservative federal jurist. Trump elevates somebody, that doesn't change the number either, so we're still down overall on the federal level. But then he gets to replace the jurist he elevated, so that brings the number of conservative jurists on federal benches back to where it was before Kennedy retired.
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That's if you consider Kennedy to be a conservative. The liberals have been calling him that recently, because he went along with Trump's travel ban. Until then, I have always heard/seen Kennedy described as a moderate or a centrist. I think that's a much better description of him. I firmly believe that he is the sole reason Scalia's decision in Heller was written with so many loopholes for the liberals to scoff at Heller while proclaiming to be proceeding according to it.
 
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