How likely is a new AWB next year?

[mtlucas0311]

I think people my want to look at the issue from a diferent perspective, there are at least two weapons bans still in place. the first is the 1934 business that doesn't nec. make anything illegal (3 classes I believe?), just a pain to get or keep. The second is the 1989 (?) ban on imports, wouldn't it be nice to buy an HK 91 for the same price as an AR? We've all just kind of gotten used to the stupidity. The 1994 "ban" was an ambitious attempt to get em' in one swoop. Luckily the manufacturers were able to sidestep via the difficulty in defining exactly what they wanted to ban (or could get away with banning). My point is, just like taxes, once the foot is in the door they will just keep wiggling in a little at a time and wait for you to "get over it" until they push a little farther. I don't think you'll see a "major" sweeping ban, even with the Dems controlling all of congress and the head executive job; it's just to volitile a subject. But watch for import ammo bans, AMMO TAXES, victim reparations, and who knows what else. They'll nip away slowly at the segments that all the hunters and especially sympathetic non-gun owners don't care about. Think about that guy/girl you know that doesn't really care about guns but supports your rights as a whole; alot of times they say "you don't really need that anyway".

 

[sholling]

If McCain wins I'd say there is a 10% chance but it will include all magazine fed semiautomatic rifles.

If Obama wins I'd say 98% chance and it will include all semiautomatic rifles, all semiautomatic and pump shotguns, and all repeating handguns of any type. All military caliber* ammunition and reloading supplies, and a limit on the number of rounds/reloading supplies on hand. Oh and look for ultra high taxes on what remains legal, and for congress to lift the ban on suing firearm manufacturers.

*9mm, 45acp, 223/5.56, 308, 30-06, 7.62xall, 50BMG etc...

 

[swestby]

A new AWB is almost a certainty next year. It will likely pass both houses of Congress, and be signed into law by BHO. (The new McCain/Palin ticket notwithstanding. Don't misunderstand, I think McCain's pick of Palin was a great choice. It just won't win him the election.)
It will have no grandfathering or sunset clauses.
It will cover many more semi-autos than the last AWB, including your WWII favorites, the Garand and M1 Carbine.

 

[RDak]

It's a given if Obama is elected IMHO. No chance if McCain is elected IMHO.

 

[LightningJoe]

If Obama's got a brain as tiny as Clinton's (and he's already shown a lot of potential), he'll want to do a celebratory victory lap as soon as he gets into office and to hand out valuable gifts to his supporters. Clinton's were gays in the military and socialized healthcare. You saw where that got him (and the Dems). Obama might get a backlash like Clinton's with giveaways like an AWB. If so, the teens could look like the roaring 90's for the Republicans.


Still, I'm hoping Obama's out of gas. We don't need that kind of poison pill. For one thing, our external enemies are a lot stronger than they were in 1992.

 

[thallub]

The AWB passed the house by one vote. The AWB was able to be passed because it was a part of the Omnibus Crime Bill along with midnight basketball and all kinds of feel good stuff.

Michel of IL, a retiring Republican, decided to vote for the AWB at the last minute.

 

[RDak]

That's a good point thallub. Maybe I'm a little too pessimistic?

 

[MeekAndMild]

No RDak, you're not too pessimistic. Look at the news coming out of Zimbabwe and you'll see just how bad things could be with President Obama being backed by a Democratic congress.

OTOH I'd estimate less than a 20% chance of getting any sort of ban if McCain becomes president.

 

[maestro pistolero]

I think we have a legal leg to stand on here. Scalia said "common use". I think you have to ask the question: common use by whom?
Since he didn't specify, It has to mean common use 'in the world' at the time. The second amendment has ALWAYS been about military arms first, and also, as confirmed in Heller, about personal defense.

US vs Miller banned sawed-off shotguns, somewhat by default because the plaintiffs ran out of money and quit, so scotus had no choice but to agree with the prosecution that SOS's were unsuitable for military use and therefore could be banned.

That means the AK 47 would be the most protected weapon, followed by the AR15, then possibly the Beretta and Sig (m11) 9mms, etc. You get my point. I am not certain of the exact order of popularity.

I don't think we have to wait for another scotus case or another AWB to find out. Once incorporation of the 14th has been established, we could challenge in one of the States which already have AWB's, in federal court.

This is not a small undertaking, but one I think we must take up.

I think we better fight for our lives on this one (legally), so we don't have to run for our lives (literally) down the road.

 

[makarov5]

I don't think an AWB ban will survive much scrutiny. Nearly all of the weapons up on the chopping block have circulations WAY beyond what they were in 1994. For you AR fanatics out there, just how many millions of ARs are out in circulation? IMHO, The "common use" test will work for us, not against us.

 

[maestro pistolero]

Makarov, I agree, and I know we're both right. Being correct doesn't always equal victory. We need a great legal team on this one. Not well known, necessarily, but smart tacticians who clearly see the whole landscape, but don't lose their razor focus.

One of the beautiful things about Gura, was that he was so disarming. (No pun intended)

 

[cbiner]

What? No Faith?

Doesn't anybody here think they will have a hard time getting support for such a law? Correct me if I am wrong, but don't all the statistics relating to crime and violence support the idea that AWB's and heavy gun control laws are counter productive to reducing crime or crime related violence?

 

[astromanluca]

Logic has no place in the mind of a politician.

 

[JWT]

If Obama is president and Pelosi is speaker they will be able to push through anti gun legislation. The Senate will be controlled by the Dems and Schumer and friends will support anti gun measures with gusto.

Yup, easy to see it happening if O gets in.

 

[Sixer]

I agree. All they would need is one "good excuse" (ie another Columbine, mall shooting, etc) and the anti-gun liberal base, with Obama at the wheel, could call for another AWB.

 

[FireMax]

Oh, it's coming. With McCain or without McCain. McCain, IMO, is not a friend of the gun owner. Hell, he has even stated that he doesn't even own a gun.

Doesn't anybody here think they will have a hard time getting support for such a law? Correct me if I am wrong, but don't all the statistics relating to crime and violence support the idea that AWB's and heavy gun control laws are counter productive to reducing crime or crime related violence?

When has reality ever stopped gun control efforts?

 

[Musketeer]

With Obama in the White House... Highly Likely

With McCain in the White House... Very Unlikely

This is on its passing of course.

 

[Yellowfin]

All of us should look at those who sponsored any anti 2A legislation and throw their sorry butts out in a couple of months. No quarter given. All must go and never have any job of any kind ever again.

 

[armedtotheteeth]

I durn sure hope there aint another AWB. I wonder if I have a few lowers, if i will be able to buy the neccesary parts to complete another few dozen ARs? Will I be able to buy the dreaded cop killer 223 ammo? will I be able to reload? Or will I be able to keep this

tape dispenser ? (which is already deemed illegal in Ca because of the pistol grip, and belt fed magazine, not to mention the deadly tape cutting bayonet attachment under the muzzle.)

 

[guntotinguy]

Remember a disarmed society is always easier to control...and also remember they want to TELL you what your (our) rights are...