I've assumed a hit rate probability of 30% for the listings below since that is an often quoted figure for the hit rate probability of law enforcement officers involved in gunfights.
The number I heard was just over 15% for police. Right at 15% for civilians and slightly less for criminals. This was from a police officer in charge of training for a large department citing OPOTA numbers. This data was for presented as actual shooting against people, not against cars, dogs, etc. From the videos and accounts I have seen the numbers seem much closer to this 'around 15%' number.
it's not terribly likely that you'll be able to take advantage of a huge round count in the few seconds a gunfight typically lasts.
How long does it take you to empty your gun? I think I will likely empty my gun before I can confirm the first shot hit. If I get hit that might change things though. Many of the surveillance videos show guns being emptied or 8+ shots being fired within seconds.
we need to assess likely hit percentages from realistic training with a lot of rounds fired.
I disagree totally. Training comes nowhere close to actual situations. Even military training with the fake propane guns and tracers over head has been shown to have limited success.
I think comparing old police statistics to new ones and contributing the difference to gun changes is extremely flawed. Being a police officer used to be, say a lifestyle. The percentage of officers who were shooters was much higher. As pay and benefits have increased dramatically the last few decades police forces are much more diverse. My local PD has a CPA on it now. Maybe this is just a local trend or a misconception, but I know some of the older/retired officers locally agree.
Agree with CDW4me and suggest anyone carrying a higher powered round than 9mm run a similar drill with a convertible gun. I would say that without a doubt the drill has enough value to me that buying a barrel for a friends convertible gun to run the drill then giving it to them would have been worth the experience(I had a Glock 27 myself). I don't own a 45, although I have fired one a few times here and there. Although the recoil is more mathematically it seems much more manageable than 40SW.
Some years ago I was taking some martial arts training with a little with edged weapons thrown in. My foreign instructor made a point of making sure that we didn't limit ourselves to the weapon. Make that big slow swing of the sword at someones head and when they lift their arms up to block it put your foot in their rib or such. In the US it seems most have a more one dimensional training such as is found in fencing or boxing. The point here being, maybe you only get the on hit in a non-vital area. Your opponent is weakened and has a very vulnerable wound. Maybe they are crawling away, or maybe they are hit in the leg and you can make a hasty retreat. If not then your 5 shot revolver with a 3% chance of getting 2 hits on both opponents may have at least dropped it from two opponents to one that is injured.
The lesson I learned from Lance Thomas is that as often as not, winning is just losing less.
