Ammo Prices: What's the new normal?

[OPC]

I've been visiting this site for a while keeping tabs on pricing trends as I hope to restock at the best price:
https://ammopricesnow.com

They do not share their search algorithms so hard to say what type, quantity, and brand of ammo their data reflects, but their graphs seem to be most consistent with target ammo. For the last few weeks, price changes seem to have flatlined for the most part on their site (+/-2cents/round for 9mm ammo since November 2021).

So, I ask the Firing Line prophets and magi:
Are current prices the new normal?
Will Eastern Europe troubles drive another spike?
Will prices ever go back to pre-2020 levels?

 

[FITASC]

Local Academy seems to have most 9mm at $20/box with plenty available

 

[Sevens]

Alllllll this talk of “the new normal” but this is nothing whatsoever normal about this market. Not currently and not at all in the past 15+ years has there been a “normal.”

The market reacts wildly and violently to American politics, and it reacts somewhat less to world politics.

If the midterms elect a slew of R’s, that will potentially help us as buyers in the market. If the POTUS goes R’s in the next cycle, that would be even better. And if that happened, it would also be no kind of a “normal”, it would be temporary.

Right now is closer to some manner of a normal than 12 months ago but it’s miles away from a normal of 2.5 years ago.

It really seems that every time a new discussion on this subject appears, folks have been owning guns and buying ammo for only a couple years. If that’s the case, I completely understand all the angst. However for anyone that’s been playing this game since the Clinton years, well you can almost set your watch to these cycles.

 

[mk70ss]

The new normal is more expensive than the old normal

 

[reddog81]

I don't think we'll see pre-2020 prices again, but I would guess that prices will continue to come down some.

I would expect a 20 to 30%% increase over pre-2020 prices to be close to where prices settle. Pre-2020 $10 per box for 9mm was common but many places sold for more and a few places had deals for less. We're now around $15 per box. A 20% increase over pre-2020 would be $12 a box.

If the Ukraine situation doesn't go too far sideways I wouldn't be surprised to see $12 a box by year end. If some calamity happens I wouldn't be surprised to see $25 per box.

 

[Shadow9mm]

my cabelas has been having 9mm for $38 per 100. My home town gun shop is in the $20 to $25 range for 9mm depending on the brand and weight.

I anticipate 9mm to settle around $16-$18 per 50 after everything calms down.

I am still hand loading for $9 per 50 on supplies I have. Based on the new supply prices, I will be able to load for around $12 per 50 going forward.

 

[OPC]

How sad is it that I’d be ok with a 20% ($12/box 9mm - as reddog81 estimates) increase? With news reports on inflation and Ukraine conflict affecting prices on everything from gas-transport to grains I think 20% would be grand. I fear much worse if the US starts providing munitions to the Ukraine military and causes a shortage domestically.

 

[FITASC]

I don't think we'll see pre-2020 prices again, but I would guess that prices will continue to come down some.

The head of Vista (Remington, Federal, CCI, Speer) is on record saying they will cut production before cutting prices so do not expect too much of a drop. If sales of 9mm and 223 stall, they'll simply switch to making other cartridges which have been in short supply during this lunacy.

 

[reddog81]

The head of Vista (Remington, Federal, CCI, Speer) is on record saying they will cut production before cutting prices so do not expect too much of a drop. If sales of 9mm and 223 stall, they'll simply switch to making other cartridges which have been in short supply during this lunacy.

Of course they'll do that in the short term. It doesn't make sense to continue to flood the market with 9mm if .38 Special will sell for 75% more a box. But eventually supplies of the other cartridges will also catch up.

 

[L. Boscoe]

Ammo prices; what's the new normal

I was able to by 9mm Norma's for 15.95/box of 50, and 45 acp Norma's for
25.95 per 50. That is the lowest I have seen, and that was sale prices.

 

[RickB]

As long as there are enough idiots willing to pay twenty-five cents for a primer, or two dollars for a single round of loaded ammo, why would the prices ever come down?
Imagine being a manufacturer, who without investing in a new facility, or additional employees, or having to buy additional raw materials, makes two or five times as much money as previously?
These are glory days for ammo makers, and they have zero interest in seeing them end.

 

[Onward Allusion]

0.30 to 0.40 per round of 9mm & 0.10 average for 22LR seems to be the "normal" these days. I feel like one of them old curmudgeons when I start to saying something like "I remember when..."

Just wait until the current supply of Tula, Barnaul, & Red Army dries up.

 

[Double Naught Spy]

So, I ask the Firing Line prophets and magi:
Are current prices the new normal?

They are the new normal until they aren't.

As long as there are enough idiots willing to pay twenty-five cents for a primer, or two dollars for a single round of loaded ammo, why would the prices ever come down?

Tell it like it is, Rick!!! If folks, enough folks, don't have enough ammo and reloading supplies onhand to withstand long term shortages and price hikes in order to force manufacturers to lower their prices, they should either just give up shooting all together or be idiots and buy ammo.

 

[rc]

9mm was $24 a box in my area today and I passed on that. I think $15 or less will be common in the next 5 years once all the energy insanity and political instability of global conflict pass. 22s are coming back in stock and $12.50+ for 50 22 LR is now coming back down to around $5 a box of 50. Still a lot of people trying to whore out over priced ammo. Just wait till the economy implodes on itself and you'll see prices come back down to earth.

 

[Doc Intrepid]

*Some* ammunition in the inland Pacific Northwest is returning to pre-COVID prices.

While much of the personal defense ammunition was right at $30 for 20 rounds last week, the Sig 125 gr V-Crown JHP 9mm personal defense ammunition was at $20 ($19.95) for 20 rounds, and that's pretty much where it was two years ago when I purchased some then (checked the receipt).

Much bulk ammunition is still high (a 50 round box of Remington UMC .45 ACP JHP was $49.95), but if you look around, especially online, you can find .45 ACP bulk at more reasonable rates.

I don't know when or whether "the ammunition market" will ever return to pre-COVID prices broadly, because supply chains for brass, primers, etc. may remain challenged into the foreseeable future; and it is clear regardless of which numbers you believe that there are more than 10 million new gun owners over the past two years. So demand may remain high also into the foreseeable future. That said, some signs for optimism are appearing and market sources from Turkey, Croatia, and many other foreign ammo manufacturers appear to be developing that will continue to ramp up supply to meet demand.

 

[rickyrick]

The prices will remain high until there’s political and social harmony in the USA.
What we see now is the new normal until another new normal.

I have made some ammunition purchases recently, but they were small. Much of the ammunition that I have is several years old.
The panic that resulted from 2008 taught me to buy whenever I can. For example, I have several sealed 5 gallon buckets of .223/5.56 and a couple of buckets of 9mm.
I had removed all of the plinking ammunition from factory packaging because that allowed me to save space. Removing the boxes allowed me to go from pallets to buckets, but I still need a dolly to move them lol.
Didn’t intend to horde, it just happened. I used to shoot every single day so I bought ammunition at a rate to support that. I slowed down on shooting, but continued to buy ammunition at the same rate.
I had always intended on getting into reloading, but that activity seems to follow the same shortages.

 

[OPC]

I hadn’t considered the manufacturers’ behavior in this. I (naively) thought their prices were static and all the increases were retailers’ markups. In retrospect, why wouldn’t they take advantage of the market trends? With several years of evidence that the market will tolerate higher prices, I agree that yes, this is the new normal barring exceptional circumstances driving prices even higher.

 

[Unkl Chuck]

Interesting site, OPC.
While I agree with Fitasc, I think we'll see prices remain elevated on popular sizes until the manufacturers backfill other thin spots in the inventory, using profits from 9mm and 223 to keep their income up. Then we may see market forces begin to start to affect prices.
Of course, don't come to me for financial advice.

 

[Geezerbiker]

I think it's too early to call this the new normal. As I see it, we are still dealing with too much panic for the dust to settle. Give it a couple more years and I think we'll hit the new normal... Inflation is running high right now and the prices of everything are going up.

Tony

 

[hounddawg]

Prices may suck now but think of how bad it would be if the government was setting the prices.

we live in a free market economy

The free market is an economic system based on supply and demand with little or no government control. It is a summary description of all voluntary exchanges that take place in a given economic environment. Free markets are characterized by a spontaneous and decentralized order of arrangements through which individuals make economic decisions

Since all transactions are voluntary the answer is what ever one is willing to pay. The alternative would really really suck