Ammo gone because of Fed...Sierra speaks.

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deepcreek

New member
I must be shopping at the wrong stores. In fact the one Walmart I go to no longer has a storage for pistol ammo.
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Here in Denver Co places that gouged prices have ammo coming back first. Walmart and others are still fairly bare because this shortage has created a scaling market, people are buying a $20. box of ammo at Walmart and trying to sell it for $25-$30 on Armslist.

A place that had double and tippled prices had prices(written with marker on plastic) 20% above normal now and have 22lr 40cal 9mm, when I went in yesterday.

A shooting range that double and tippled prices I went today had cases of 223 waist high (I didn't look at the prices)

Store supply's are coming back I see the shelves getting more ammo every time I go into the stores.
 
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Closing The Gap

New member
There are two Walmarts in my area that have done the same thing as far as putting other items where the ammo used to be. However if you take the time to ask as I did, both places are keeping it locked up in back when they get it in stock. One store has you go to the auto repair area and get it from them while the other keeps it in the back room. As I stated earlier when the ammo comes in people are there that clean it out almost immediately.

Ill say it again get the downloadable walmart APP. Search AMMO and watch the supply every day. Youll see in stock, limited stock or out of stock. In stock means that its either on a truck on its way there or already in the store, limited stock means there are 1-3 boxes left and out of stock means just what it says. you arent in a different country. I think your tin foil hat may be on too tight to see that I'm giving you the real secret unlike those conspiracy kooks...

Edit: sometimes you have to wait for quite a while before they can unload the truck and bring it out. But if you pay attention to the app youll find what you need in small quantities(3 box limit)

Also if your Walmart puts it out at 7am like most do, youll want to be there at 4am to beat the re-sellers...
 
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tyme

Administrator
I think that the publicized federal government ammo contract is contributing to the ammo shortage. However, it's not because there's ammo being diverted to the government away from private commercial channels.

Ammo production must be fairly inelastic with respect to demand. The current administration's politics, combined with widespread news coverage of (perceived) "huge" DHS ammo contracts, is scaring people into buying more ammo than they would normally buy. That's exhausting the supply. Thus the shortage.
 
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seeker_two

New member
I'd place more of the blame on the Chinese for buying up all the metals they can get (brass, lead, copper, etc.) than I would any Fed contracts....
 
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tyme

Administrator
What evidence is there that ammo manufacturers have a materials shortage? If that were the case, why wouldn't the Sierra VP mention it?
 
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breakingcontact

Moderator
I'm not quick to sign on to conspiracies or join in defense of the gov.

I can speak on this though...

The guys lining up outside of Cabelas and Walmart every morning are who is buying it.
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The problem is...people are buying from these jokers. Who is buying from the flippers? I haven't bought one round of ammo from a flipper. I will trade ammo with friends, with others online, but I'm not feeding the flippers. That's where the real problem lays. Mostly, I think we have done this to ourselves as a community.

But, skepticism of the gov and of conspiracies is always a good thing.
 
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Tom Servo

Staff
I do not believe everything I read or hear.
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But you're buying into unsubstantiated and questionable rumors of conspiracy.

I have seen nothing to suggest that the .gov is cornering the market on ammunition. What I have seen is a continuing pattern of panic buying and hoarding on the part of the general public.

I know, because I work in the industry, and I see it every day.

"Do you have any ____ ammo?"

"Yep. We just got ____ cases in."

"I'll take all of it! Whaddaya mean I can't? What is this, communist Russia? Arrgh! You're lucky I got those 60,000 rounds (which I will never in my life shoot) before things got all hinky, or I'd...I'd...gaaarrrghh!"

That is where the ammo is going.
 
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Doyle

New member
What evidence is there that ammo manufacturers have a materials shortage?
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I'm not convinced there is a materials shortage but I do believe there is a definite materials supply problem. That fact was shown clearly during the previous ammo crisis. Manufacturers (all kinds - not just ammo) have their materials purchase contracts set for normal operations. They know that this method gets them through the normal up and down cycles that happen throughout the year.

When a sudden increase in demand happens (even as little as a sustained 10% increase) they can't easily change their purchase contracts fast enough to gear up production (and that assumes they even have extra production capacity).

If they are convinced that the surge in demand will last for years, then yes they can renegotiate purchase contracts and increase machinery capacity. However, no business manager worth his salt will do that without definite signs that the trend will continue.
 
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Evan Thomas

New member
Buzzcook, you're correct. Here's a good resource for anyone who's interested in tracking this stuff:

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/

Scroll down to the "base metals" section, and you'll find prices over time intervals ranging from one week to five years. Copper and tin prices have risen slightly since the beginning of the month, but they've fallen since the beginning of the year, along with lead, nickel, zinc, and aluminum.

These numbers don't seem to suggest any supply problems.
 
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breakingcontact

Moderator
But you're buying into unsubstantiated and questionable rumors of conspiracy.

I have seen nothing to suggest that the .gov is cornering the market on ammunition. What I have seen is a continuing pattern of panic buying and hoarding on the part of the general public.

I know, because I work in the industry, and I see it every day.

"Do you have any ____ ammo?"

"Yep. We just got ____ cases in."

"I'll take all of it! Whaddaya mean I can't? What is this, communist Russia? Arrgh! You're lucky I got those 60,000 rounds (which I will never in my life shoot) before things got all hinky, or I'd...I'd...gaaarrrghh!"

That is where the ammo is going.
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I agree this is where most of the supply is tightening up, but...why is this the case? Who the hell is feeding these ammo flippers? Perhaps it's hoarders as well.
 
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Ignition Override

New member
When did the US government begin to buy much .22LR, if any at all?
When did they start using the 9x18 Makarov or .380 rounds?

On THR under General Discussions there is a brand-new thread titled "The bubble has burst". Many of the flippers will soon sweat, and not just when mowing the grass.:)

People are starting to find a good bit more of most ammo flavors than they did one week ago at some Academies, Cabelas etc. And last night
"Gunbot" listed a distributor with .22LR for .10/round...still comical but a good sign. The ammo was available for a gourmet flavor of .22LR, but still too pricey for me (1,800 rds. of it still stored).

Most of the .22LR flippers receive 0 bids on the first two pages of Gunbroker, the first to close, and this has been the case for over two weeks, if not longer.
 
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bamaranger

New member
last time

Last time we went through this business, I'd had enough. As .22 started reappearing in a year or so, I'd buy a brick, usually at Wally World, as the situation allowed. Laid in enough that I can shoot .22 now and not really worry to much.

I expect much the same this time. I've seen some of these flippers around town and at the flea markets and yard sales. Most seem pretty sorry characters.
 
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cryogenic419

New member
What seems more logical....

The government buying up ALL of the ammo just because....OR

Between the 2012 election where a very vocal anti gun individual was elected and some high profile shootings/killings caused politicians to start yapping away about gun control which gets everybody all fired up. So everybody and their mother runs out and buys ANYTHING gun and ammo related. I'm doubting the government is out there snatching up all the Pmags, primers, powders, other reloading components, hi cap mags, and ammo.

I mean sure its possible there is some clandestine operation for government operatives to hit all the major retail chains then turn around and try to peddle off those items for higher prices on the secondary market. The profits from that then get put towards lowering the national debt. I suppose its possible...but not very likely. The more realistic scenario would be people stockpiling/hoarding and people looking to make a profit from all the madness. I suppose its a government conspiracy that the LGS or the shooting range you buy your ammo from and shoot at all jacked up the prices on plinking ammo too? Gotta remember folks..we saw this very same thing happen right after the election in 2008.

So maybe...just maybe the government is always buying ammo. Whether it be the feds, state or local governments....I'm betting SOMEBODY always has a contract and is getting ammo. No one notices or gives a damn during the good times, its just business as normal. I seem to recall seeing EVERYTHING on store shelves right up til...oh mid December 2012.

I don't claim to know the financial inner workings of the gun and ammo companies, but I betcha they make more per round on civilian sales than they do on government contracts. Would it not be in their best interests to keep the civilian market as supplied as best as they possibly can? Keep in mind their machinery is only capable of producing so much per day. When demand outpaces what they are capable of producing in a day...what do you think is going to happen? All these people screaming JUST ADD MORE EQUIPMENT AND EXPAND!! From a company standpoint it doesn't make sense and isn't feasible knowing this is just a temporary problem. It makes as much sense putting an addition onto your house just because the mother in law is coming to stay for a few days.

Material shortages and supply issues is also a realistic problem these companies may run in to. Imagine a fast food restaurant that is used to serving 500 customers a day. Then one day on the news somebody says fast food is good for you and will help you live longer and they jump to 10,000 customers a day. They will run out of food. Sure they can tell their suppliers to send more, but if the suppliers are used to supplying that 500 customer a day level, they may not be up to the task for 10,000. Ramping up levels like that takes time and coordination on many levels.

I work for a metal company, so I can say this with some authority. We order materials sometimes a year or more out. Sometimes the mills only do runs on certain alloys, sizes, or shapes for 3 weeks out of the year. If you don't get in on it while the opportunity is there you are screwed til the next time. Say we don't order enough of a certain size, and then our customer wants to quadruple their usual order...they are S.O.L. Its not a conspiracy, we want to sell them the metal but sometimes there are unforeseen circumstances that throw a wrench into things.

OK, now time for me to get back to work before my CIA boss notices I'm not listing all the primers and Pmags on Gunbroker.
 
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stumper1300

New member
This so called shortage is almost laughable. Retailers get in what last yr would have been a month supply and it sells in minutes. Ammo dealers are seeing record sales and you think there is a shortage? Its the people that don't have the time or ambition to get to the store to get in on the latest shipments that are short.
 
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jmr40

New member
Every Walmart within 50 miles of here has only a handful of ammo, mostly 300 and 7 mag. Same is true in most of the big box stores. All the handgun ammo, 223, and 22's are not there. I don't know if they are coming in and being sold before I get there or not.

But all of the smaller gunshops in town have always been well stocked, especially with better quality ammo. There have been lapses when some budget priced 223 and handgun ammo was not on the shelves, but most of the time it was there. With regular shipments coming in. I haven't seen any of the 500 round bulk packs or 22, but 100 packs of CCI Mini-mags have been on the shelves from the start. At least in local gunshops.

Just a guess, but Walmarts and other big stores sign contracts for a certain quantity of ammo. With a certain schedule for it to arrive. These contracts are signed well in advance. I'm betting they are locked into a rigid system where they don't have the option to be flexible like smaller stores. My guess is that Walmart is getting exactly the quantity ammo they ordered over a year ago without anticipating this. This is how Walmart does business with every thing they sell in order to get lower prices.
 
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JohnKSa

Administrator
I don't know if they are coming in and being sold before I get there or not.
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That's exactly what's happening. They start lining up at the Wal-Mart closest to my house 3-4 hours before an ammo shipment is expected. Last time I went in, the attendant said they got in 1000 rounds of 9mm in their last shipment and sold it all to people who had been waiting in the store for 3-4 hours--the ammunition never even hit the shelves.

He said that's standard operating procedure these days. He also admitted (when I questioned him about it) that it's pretty much the same group of people lining up every time.
 
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