A matter of time for ammo prices to drop?

[Mike Irwin]

Few companies have the deep pockets of Winchester or Remington, or the start up capital that they're able to amass.

The salient point remains, however, that the manufacturers are, as they are able, moving to address this issue as best they can.

If they wanted to exploit it for long term gain past what is currently projected, they would NOT be adding additional capacity, they would be considering retiring capacity in order to artificially inflate prices long-term.

Currently it is not the manufacturers who are inflating prices, it's markets external to the manufacturer's (metals commodities investors) and increased demand from the end user community, both military and civilian.

In other words, the only people who are to be blamed for much of this is... us.

 

[oneounceload]

I doubt even Remington has pockets this deep, Mike. More likely, everything has gone to a 24/7 scenario until the "bubble" passes. I was involved in the same thing in Construction Mgt on refineries.....no time to invest in new stuff, run it all out for the time being....same thing here.......until everyone just calms down and stops trying to be the next e-bay millionaire selling overpriced ammo, this won't stop

 

[22-rimfire]

I don't expect pricing to do anything other than stabilize as supply catches up with demand. There will likely be more sales. High prices are here to stay and the more likely bet is that they will continue to rise over the short term. Unless you are buying primarily surplus ammo for military rifles, I really never saw cheap prices on ammo in the last 20 years. Things are relative. Income goes up and the product prices go up as well. Most people really don't make a significant amount of upward financial progress other than the first 10 years after college. In the mean time, the cost of living goes up as do our "needs".

 

[Hook686]

It may be hard to grasp, but the U.S. dollar is not worth what it once was. I recall in the 1960's going to South America. One year 600 Cruzeiros were to a U.S. dollar. One year later 1100 to the U.S. dollar. In Chile it was worse, 3500 Escudos to the U.S. dollar. I had to take a gym bag full of paper money to buy a meal.

Today in the USA it is reminding me of those years in South America, the rich get richer, the poor poorer and the middle class shrinks away.

Last year I came across a box of 100 grain 6mm Remington I had bought at White Front in the 60's marked $4.95 (The Ruger M77 was $165 as I recall). Today a box of 100 grain 6mm Remington goes for 25 bucks (Ruger M77, Mrk II today is $550). On the other hand gasoline was $.33 a gallon. Today it is $2.90. T-bone steak was $.35 a lb. Today T-bone runs $5 a lb.I do not think guns and ammunition have gone up quite at the same rate as other goods. However this might soon change.

Does anyone think firearms and/or ammunition might be good trade goods in coming years in the USA ?

 

[seed]

Uh...I am normally the gloom and doom guy, but not this time. Not only have I seen ammo quietly becoming more widely available these past few months, but I have also seen prices coming back down to Earth. They're not down to pre-election hysteria day prices yet, but they are inching (with a few bumps here and there) ever so closer. I am encouraged, to say the least.

Just be vigilant, check the net and your local shops. And last, but not least, don't be a d... and hoard and sell. Buy what you need for now and the future, but not for (monetary) investment purposes. If everyone just chills a bit, things will become more and more sane.

Just wanted to add that for the geniuses out there who see dollar signs in schemes with buying and reselling ammo at a high mark-up, consider not only the damage you are contributing to the whole mess, but also that there are MUCH better ways to invest your money to see MUCH higher returns in MUCH more assured ways. Investing in ammo for profit is Mickey Mouse stuff.

 

[22-rimfire]

Ammo as trade material? Sure if the worst happens which is unlikely. But you will spend all of your time guarding your hoard of food, firearms, and ammunition and then an organized group just takes it from you. We do the best we can.

Buying ammo for resale by individual is Mickey Mouse stuff as mentioned. The only way it would be significant is if you really moved a lot of product quickly and consistantly.

 

[Mike Irwin]

"I doubt even Remington has pockets this deep, Mike."

Yeah, you're right. Remington and Winchester are both producing ammo on machinery that Gutenberg used to cast hot lead type in the 1490s because they don't have pockets deep enough to modernize.

I guess someone forgot to tell Remington that they don't have pockets deep enough to have funded their last series of capital improvements at Lonoke, which included roughly $20 million in modernized production machinery, several years ago.

Or, for that matter, Winchester, when it moved .22 production from East Alton to Oxford, Miss., in 2005 to a new plant to the tune of about $30 million.

In the grand scheme of things, installing a new production line for ammunition manufacture is relatively inexpensive because, while the machinery is pretty expensive on the front end, its cost is easily amortized over the DECADES that the machinery is capable of operating.

Up through the 1980s most commercial ammunition in the United States was made on machinery that dated to World War II, or before.

Some of that machinery may very well still be in operation today.

 

[Mello2u]

Coop de Ville

A matter of time for ammo prices to drop?

While prices will fluctuate, I would nbot expect prices to return to where they were 2 years ago.

It is politically preferable to inflate the dollar and prices as it is an automatic tax increase as people who move "up" in tax brackets, pay proportionately more taxes with no real increase in buying power. It makes our manufactured products "cheaper" to other countries.

Look at what inflation has been for the last 100 years.

 

[Falcon5NZ]

Have a look at the Gun City website. Once you click on a category you can put prices into USD. For a box of Winchester 9mm 115gr HP I would pay US$40. Admittedly they are known for being on the high side price wise but still gives you an idea on NZ prices. Still, suppressors are cheap and we treat SMLE's like you guys treat Mosin Nagant's (one of them will run you US$460.) Mind you I have a mate who own's another shop and is thinking of getting some PPSH-43's (NZ$1250) and can get Maxim's (NZ$3k landed). At least I can get new full autos no problem (Just can't fire them)

 

[Playboypenguin]

I think we are seeing the same problem with ammo that we saw with fuel. Why produce more if it will only lower the cost of the product? Why would you pay more material and manpower costs to sell the product cheaper when you can bring in the same amount of cash with lower expenses leaving more profit by keeping supply low and prices high? I think ammo manufacturers are taking advantage of the consumers at this time.

 

[MosinM38]

Some, not alot.

Not gonna see .45 for under $10.

But it's better, I can find 9mms for $10 VS the $14 it was, Blazer aluminum for $14 VS the $17 it was, and .223 ammo's dropped to $20 per 50.

So...I think it's nearing the low point, which is a little better than it was.

My biggest gripe is that although ammo is becoming more available, the stuff that WAS available is a no-show, and 3rd-name brands are showing up.

 

[Coop de Ville]

It's funny, 10 years ago I would snicker at wolf ammo. There was always this guy who had a can full of wolf at the IDPA matches every other Sunday.. Everyone made comment about how crappy that was. I would buy S&B for $75 / 1000 delivered (9mm). CCI blazer on a cheap day.

Now I just search for wolf...

Not complaining, I understand prices go up... just wishful thinking. Like picking up a 100 round box of w white box at wally world for $10.99


Best,

-Coop

 

[oneounceload]

"I doubt even Remington has pockets this deep, Mike."

Yeah, you're right. Remington and Winchester are both producing ammo on machinery that Gutenberg used to cast hot lead type in the 1490s because they don't have pockets deep enough to modernize.

I guess someone forgot to tell Remington that they don't have pockets deep enough to have funded their last series of capital improvements at Lonoke, which included roughly $20 million in modernized production machinery, several years ago.

Now including the original rest of my comment:

More likely, everything has gone to a 24/7 scenario until the "bubble" passes.

Several years ago did not include the current bubble......and while all companies upgrade, I have not seen or heard from folks in the business where anyone is expanding to meet this upsurge which they consider temporary - they ARE going to overtime and multiple shifts in the short term - and that short tern might be 2 years, but new equipment might take that long to acquire

 

[carmy]

oneounceload has said it all very succintly. enough said.

 

[jimbob86]

Are ammo prices ever going back down?

Yeah..... someday, you'll be able to trade a pig for a box of bullets, because they'll have printed so many greenbacks that nobody will want them for anything but toilet paper.......

 

[RETG]

Back in 2004, I was paying $19.99 per box of 9mm Winchester White Box (100 rds). This past Monday in Provo, UT, I purchased a box of 50, Federal FMJ for $9.47.

I get .40 for free.

My problem is not obtaining target ammo, Wally-world on Monday was filled with Ammo (but still limiting a purchase to six boxes), I can't find PDX for my 9mm or my privately owned .40. So, I can't shoot any that I have, until it can be replenished.

 

[1shot2kills]

damn are you guys just noticing this now? thats how inflation works one person jack up prices then everyone else wants a cut so omg now we can raise our prices... so they do thats how gas went from .25 cents a gallon back in the olden days to 5.00 a few months back. and i don't believe ammo will EVER get very much cheaper... its hard to find, we have hoarders out there that are stockpilling sometimes thousands of rounds for EACh gun they have... do to mr obamma and being afraid he will do away with our rights, which i dont really even wanna get started on... its really hurting alot those who are lookin for ammo... im lookin for the day where a few people end up not bein able to protect themselves like they could of due to this "drought" of ammo... and it is a drought, ive called every hole in the wall that i know sells ammo and sure enough no body have any.40 s&w in stock except blazer... i can find that like all hell... i don't necessarily like shooting blazer but thats all i can get ahold of... so i guess im stuck with it... unless i wanna call and order and wait a few days from say cabellas or one of the other mail order spots. id rather buy now and shoot now. im gonna have to get jumpin on my reloading seriously and maybe i can help with the shortage in my area... idk thougif my lil progressive can help any even put a dent in the ammo shortage but at least me and my folks will have plenty for ourselves, i might make 2k round for my weapons... a .40 cal and a 12g pump shotgun... and then do the same for my parents the have too many guns to list reloading seem to be the only real option for shooters in todays ammo market

 

[wingman]

I think we are seeing the same problem with ammo that we saw with fuel. Why produce more if it will only lower the cost of the product? Why would you pay more material and manpower costs to sell the product cheaper when you can bring in the same amount of cash with lower expenses leaving more profit by keeping supply low and prices high? I think ammo manufacturers are taking advantage of the consumers at this time.

You nailed it, why increase labor & material cost if I can sell a brick of 22LR for $50 previously selling for $19. Stockpiling raises prices and it won't cease until the consumer decides it's not worth the effort.

First of year 2009 I watched shoppers at my local Cabelas actually sweeping arm loads of ammo off the shelves into baskets next few weeks prices went up fear driven,some stockpiling some I believe looking to make a profit but in the end we the consumer lose.

Like all hobbies the firearms industry will hurt long term if it continues hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[johnwilliamson062]

The only problem with your assertions is the amount of domestic and international competition. You guys all seem to think the CEOs of the ammo companies are all sitting in a back room of a run down bar smoking cigars talking about how they can work together to drive up ammo prices.