A matter of time for ammo prices to drop?

[Coop de Ville]

Hi All,

Probably kidding myself but do any of you think we'll see lower ammo prices like a few years back?

ie: 50 round box of S&B 9mm for $4.99, .45 ACP for $5.99...

I know I keep hearing that prices are dropping but $13.00 for Wolf 9mm (Natchez) isn't really cutting it..

Best

-Coop

 

[fastforty]

Nope.

Look at groceries. Every time the price of gas went up 50 cents, $100 worth of groceries suddenly cost $10 more. Did the supermarkets drop their prices when fuel costs went back down? Heck no, they just waited for the next increase in fuel prices and continued jacking their prices.

 

[John76248]

Are you kidding???? With all the greed in this country. I think not.

 

[Mike Irwin]

No! NO! NO NO NO!

Prices will continue to rise! Next year we'll be paying $100 for a box of 50! The year after that, $100 for one round!



OK, just poking some fun at the doom and gloom crowd...

While there's absolutely no way to tell for sure, I think there's a pretty good chance that yes, we WILL see ammo prices drop back to levels near where they were a few years ago.

As for grocery stores not dropping their prices, that is certainly going on where I live, in DC metro. Prices have dropped on a wide variety of items as fuel and food prices have dropped over the last few months.

Ultimately, it's a matter of supply and demand.

If the price of required metals remains high, the price of ammo won't drop.

If transportation costs remain high, or go higher, the price won't drop.

If shortages continue due to manufacturers not being able to keep up with demand, the price won't drop.

Reverse any, or all, of those, and yes, the price of ammo will drop.

As the price of primers skyrocketed the last few months, a similar question was asked -- will primer prices ever drop.

Some here were crying about how $50 and $75 per K was the "new bottom" and we'd never again see sub $30 prices.

Well, we're beginning to see prices that are pushing VERY close to the $30 level in many areas of the country. As the supply continues to improve and people stop panic buying the price will continue to drop.

A similar situation occurred back in the 1990s. For some reason primers became unavailable for the better part of a year. Prices skyrocketed to an unheard of price of $30+ per K.

People were moaning and crying about how that was the new set price, and we'd never see prices below those again.

By 1997 primers were again widely available, and from 1997 until about 18 months ago it was not at all uncommon to be able to buy primers for $10, or even a bit less, per K.

 

[langenc]

How much has ammo gone up since say 1975??

Compare it to silver and see..

In 1975 one could buy ammo for around $5/20 rounds. Silver was about $2/oz.

Today silver is $18 or so and you can buy ammo for less than $45, when you can find it..

Ammo is not up so much, the dollar is DOWN so much.

How long did you have to work in 1975 for a box of ammo?? How long now?? Maybe not a fair comparison.

 

[oneounceload]

I just shot sporting clays this morning and brought along a box of Federal loads from 20 years ago - the price was still on the box - 9.95 - about double what I can get them for now.

Between low dollar, inflation on certain products, increases in taxes and fess and wages and insurances, and most importantly - those folks who scarf up everything at walmart and try to unload them on GB and at flea markets for huge mark-ups, prices will settle, but not really come down - not to what anyone in the last decade remembers

Are you kidding???? With all the greed in this country. I think not.

Right - the typical margin of profit is about 8%.

Look at groceries. Every time the price of gas went up 50 cents, $100 worth of groceries suddenly cost $10 more. Did the supermarkets drop their prices when fuel costs went back down? Heck no, they just waited for the next increase in fuel prices and continued jacking their prices.

Their margins run about 3% on food items - their profit comes from things like birthday cards and shampoo

Can see not too many folks understand how business and profits work.

People complain about high prices on guns, unless THEY are trying to sell one; people complain about high prices on ammunition - then reload or try golf.

Shooting isn't a cheap hobby compared to many others. If the prices are too high, then that would mean it's a good time to open a gun-related business and rake in all those exorbitant profits.....

 

[Tom Servo]

A similar situation occurred back in the 1990s. For some reason primers became unavailable for the better part of a year. Prices skyrocketed to an unheard of price of $30+ per K.

Yep, the great "expiring primer panic" of 1995. We actually had a repeat of that rumor this year.

Manufacturers and distributors are still charging higher "hazmat and transportation" surcharges, and while pistol ammo does appear to be going down just a hair, the cost of rifle ammo is holding.

The biggest jump I saw was around September 2007, when rifle ammo seemed to rise about 30%. Much of that was driven by the cost of copper and lead being high at the time. Of course, copper and lead prices have gone down, but ammo has not.

I doubt we'll see prices like we saw around 2002 ever again, but they should be coming down a bit gradually over the next two months.

(I also expect to see a glut of ammo hitting the secondary market when people start trying to get rid of the stockpile they created in the post-election panic)

 

[Mike Irwin]

You know, I just thought about something...

Prior to 1986 ammo prices tended to be a LOT higher than they were in the following years.

Why?

The Firearms Owner's Protection Act.

Among other things, it really reduced the barriers on importing ammunition from overseas.

That meant that the captive markets that domestic manufacturers had enjoyed were now under assault, and the only way to compete was to... compete.

After 1986 prices on ammunition started to drop dramatically.

In 1983 a box of Federal American Eagle ammunition cost as much as $15.

In 1993 you could get the same box of ammo, or something comparable, for about half that.

 

[Mike Irwin]

"Of course, copper and lead prices have gone down, but ammo has not."

Of course not. Because what happened right on the heels of the metals increases?

The HIGHEST sustained demand for ammunition that has ever been seen in this country, courtesy of the realization that the gun-unfriendly Democrats were likely going to be controlling the entire government.

And that was ON TOP OF increased military demand.

Any one of those events, by itself, would have the potential to cause significant increases in prices and decrease in ammo availablility.

What does economics 101 teach us about supply and demand?

Supply is low, demand is high, and prices go up.

But, when Supply is high, and demand is low, prices go down.

 

[RickB]

Apparently, Uncle Sam has decided he needs to replenish all of the ammo stocks that have been depleted over the last eight years. I've seen some press releases regarding the awarding of ammo contracts, and it will take YEARS to fill them. Department of Homeland Security alone awarded a contract for 300 million rounds, and there were three or four others. If anything, ammo demand will be going up. Copper and lead, after dropping during the Summer, are back on the rise. I hadn't bought a box of factory ammo in a couple of years, so went on a little fact-finding mission. A 100-round box of Federal .22 LR hollowpoints was $9.95. $5.95 for 50 rounds of a similar, solid version. Another store had no .22 ammo, other than RWS brand match ammo at $7 per 50. A buddy told me there's a store about an hour north, that has 500-round bulk packs for about $20, which seems extremely reasonable by comparison. A friend in British Columbia said he can get all the 500-round bricks he wants, for $17 each. But, there apparently isn't a small pistol primer in all of Canada? Pretty weird.

 

[Mike Irwin]

"Department of Homeland Security alone awarded a contract for 300 million rounds"

Winchester, Remington, and others who provide ammunition to the government aren't just sitting back on their collective butts hoping that the Gov't will let them take as long as they want to fulfill those orders.

Winchester has already added a new production line to manufacture .223 ammo. Considerable cost, but profit and demand are there to support it.

If Remington gets contracts to match, they'll likely add a new production line, as well.

I believe Winchester has also added a new primer production line.

Modern ammunition manufacturing equipment can turn out up to 5,000 rounds an hour, and do so for days on end.

One facility with 10 dedicated lines can manufacture up to 1.2 million rounds a day.

 

[oneounceload]

Winchester, Remington, and others who provide ammunition to the government aren't just sitting back on their collective butts hoping that the Gov't will let them take as long as they want to fulfill those orders.

Winchester has already added a new production line to manufacture .223 ammo. Considerable cost, but profit and demand are there to support it.

If Remington gets contracts to match, they'll likely add a new production line, as well.

I believe Winchester has also added a new primer production line.

Modern ammunition manufacturing equipment can turn out up to 5,000 rounds an hour, and do so for days on end.

One facility with 10 dedicated lines can manufacture up to 1.2 million rounds a day.

And in order to do that, you either:
A - invest in new buildings to house new equipment, or
B - stop producing other lines for the time being resulting in shortages

One must also remember that deciding to just start up another line doesn't happen - that equipment has a slightly longer lead time to procure than the groceries at your local store.

 

[Mike Irwin]

"And in order to do that, you either:
A - invest in new buildings to house new equipment, or
B - stop producing other lines for the time being resulting in shortages"


Point A - Or, you expanding IN the buildings you already have, in areas that were not previously used for such an activitiy, which Winchester has already done.

Point B - Manufacturers have also done that, as well, primarily in an effort to meet active warfighter needs. The critical need for ammo has passed for the moment.

Everyone seems to forget that we've been in similar situations before...

World War II, Korea, and Vietnam. There were shortages for awhile, probably lots of doom and gloom that we'd never xee civilian produces again, etc.

And the reality as that the civilian markets recovered quickly.

 

[langenc]

""I just shot sporting clays this morning and brought along a box of Federal loads from 20 years ago - the price was still on the box - 9.95 - about double what I can get them for now.""

Not to brag but I have shotgun ammo from the mid 70s priced in the $2.69 range. It still goes bang when I need it to.

 

[johnwilliamson062]

Yes.
There are a lot of companies manufacturing ammunition.
The idea that manufacturers and retailers are artificially jacking up prices does not hold water, there is simply too much competition and the VAST use of ammo is not brand specific.
There is no reason for ammo to drop to the prices posted at this point. Demand is high, commodities are not high, but they aren't rock bottom either, gas is not stable and is much higher, etc.

What cost $2.69 in 1975 would cost $10.65 in 2008

- Inflation calculator
That is without considering the interest you could have made over the years.
No need to brag sir. You got ripped off
I know you aren't all financial gurus, but I love these comments, made almost daily on TFL, that totally ignore inflation.

 

[RockyMtnTactical]

Don't count on ammo prices to decrease... you'll be waiting a long time...

 

[ritepath]

Same as petrol and groceries and everything else....the good ole days are behind us.

 

[Brian Pfleuger]

I know you aren't all financial gurus, but I love these comments, made almost daily on TFL, that totally ignore inflation.

Therein lies the next problem Yeah, prices will come back down.... and then the massive inflation caused by more than doubling the money supply will kick in. Maybe next year, maybe in 3 years, who knows, but inflation is coming, and ammo will not be alone.

 

[oneounceload]

""I just shot sporting clays this morning and brought along a box of Federal loads from 20 years ago - the price was still on the box - 9.95 - about double what I can get them for now.""

Not to brag but I have shotgun ammo from the mid 70s priced in the $2.69 range. It still goes bang when I need it to.

good for you - my point was that ammo has been very high for years except for the last decade or so and in that time, folks got spoiled.....

Or, you expanding IN the buildings you already have, in areas that were not previously used for such an activitiy, which Winchester has already done.

IF a company has the room, very cool....most I know have previously expanded to meet current demands and are not able to do more.

 

[chris in va]

Right now I'm paying about $3.50/50 of 9mm.