War in the Mideast ... What are the Implications?

[Jeff Thomas]

Hopefully that pot will simply continue to simmer, or more hopefully, finally begin to cool.

But, I wouldn't bet on optimism right now.

If war breaks out in the Mideast, what implications can America expect? Impact on the RKBA, firearms, ammo? Economic dislocations? ... seems like a bad time for more market-rattling news. Direct military involvement by the U.S.? Further expansion of U.N. power?

Seems like I saw a report that the Chinese were consulting with one of the Arab states, but I can't lay my hands on it at the moment.

Anyone have any good web sites re: publicly-available intelligence on the issue?

Regards from AZ

 

[MAURICE]

you know...i was watching the news this morning and heard about the current situation. i couldnt tell you what it is,i remember something about attacks by either the israelis or palestinians,etc.

i dont even know whats going on!

but if war does break out,i will be going. i just turned 18,and will be sent,should the draft be used this time around.

i actually started cussing a stream of obsenities not appropriate for a rated R movie.

why?
because i might DIE for something i dont know about.


i guess this is what it was like in oh say 63,or 64 when the vietnam conflict was starting to swing into motion.

sadly,and hoping worse doesnt come to worse,
MAURICE

 

[Seeker]

Easy Maurice,

I can't imagine the draft being reinstated - it wasn't reinstated when we fought the fourth largest army in the world ten years ago, and I don't see the US putting troops on the ground in a combat stiuation there - all the neighboring countries would go ape****, it'd be akin ta tossin' water ona grease fire.

I wonder what would be the Interest of the US to become involved. What effect is it on teh US if one side wipes out the other? Does Israel still still constitute a Strategic location for the US? Certainly they are an economic interest to the Military-Industrial complex in that they are good customers outside that what is their strategic value?

It seems that not too long ago they were running intel ops against the US.

I say cut'em loose and let them work it out with the Palastinians.

I can't say one side is more right than the other. The Israelis have done a heck of a job making the desert liveable over the last 55 years, the palastinians could have taken advantage of this and made their areas better. On the other hand the palstiians were there first and seemed to like not being involved in labor intensive farming. And I can admire them for sticking to their guns (and rocks) against a superior force. I can imagine myself in a similar position here in Oregon if the Federal gubermint became all powerful and started going door to door collecting firearms from registered owners.

Also Maurice, one way to avoid being drafted is to get the Libertarians into office. Liberatrians believe that the Draft is a violation of an idividuals rights. Have you been to lp.org?

 

[Bear Flare]

Aw, Hell. With all the equipment they've been buying from us, the Israelis would have it sewed up in about 6 days anyway. The Isrealis get as much money from us as our own military gets!

Bear Flare

 

[gdw]

Sure they buy a lot of stuff from the US but then they sell half of it to the ChiComs...

 

[Jeff Thomas]

I agree it is unlikely that Maurice has to sweat the draft.

However, regarding strategic implications for the U.S., I would say it comes down to that one word ... OIL. It is highly unlikely that a war in the Mideast would not impact the movement of oil from that part of the world.

Regards from AZ

 

[Zundfolge]

threat of war in the middle east is yet another reason we should be drilling in ANWR.

Another implication of war in the Middle east is that prices for replacement parts for those of you who own IMI rifles and handguns will probably go through the roof

 

[Brett Bellmore]

To be sure, war in the middle east would effect oil sales. BUT, would supplies be disrupted, or would the arabs be selling all they could pump to finance the war? That's the question.

 

[Kaylee]

I suspect whether the supply is cut or not, we'd see a hefty hike in petroleum prices in the US. ANWR is no more than a short-term patch though. Personally, I'd like to see us moving away from oil technology as much as we can. Folks have been slaughtering each other over there for literally thousands of years over a tiny patch of desert -- it won't end until they've fused that desert into glass, and maybe not even then.

Having our economy tied to that kind of chaos is just asking for trouble, and the sooner we can pull up stakes and take our toys home the better, I'd say.

(As to other implications over here.. likely little for day-to-day life, unless one of the Arab states takes a dislike to the US standing behind Israel and drives a Soviet surplus WOMD right under the Maginot Li...err.... Missle Shield.)

-K

 

[Russ]

Gas prices will go way up for awhile.

 

[Waitone]

ANWR will be drilled in a Noo Yawk minute.

Bush will quit playing patty-cake with Fox in Mexico. Drilling off Santa Barbara will happen. Same for drilling off NC. Drilling in the Gulf of Mexico will happen. Venezula will become rich. Natural gas exploration in the gulf will proceed.

Environmentalists ride high in the saddle when there is no external threat. One good oil shock and the environmentalists will have to wear paper bags. Its ok to kill firefighters because of an "endangered" fish. Its another thing to take Soccor Mom's SUV off the road bacause Sadaam won't sell oil to her.

I fear we'll see the first use of biological agents in the next Middle East war. Its too cheap, easy, and readily at hand.

Now you know how we felt during the Vietnam fiaso. 500 Americans dying a week at the height of the war AND NO ONE COULD TELL ANYONE WHY. Later we find McNamara wanted out but didn't have the b*lls to tell Johnson!

Don't get me started!!!!

 

[Byron Quick]

sigh

1) Many of the Arab states( Egypt and Saudi Arabia are two) will talk about their support for the Palestinians-and that's all it will be...talk. Syria and Iraq are two states that might fight.
2) Saddam won't sell us oil? Hellooo! The embargo is still in place...Iraq is only allowed to sell a certain amount of oil to buy foods and medicines. They would probably be quite happy to have the chance to sell us oil.
3) In the 1967 and 1973 wars, Israel was constrained militarily by the US using resupply of critical munitions and supplies to pressure Israel into downsizing military operations and reducing military goals. I would be surprised if Israel did not learn from this and has stockpiled critical muntions and supplies for a war in which they cripple the front line states.
4) Israel's longterm strategic situation is not good. Israel is only twelve miles wide at a couple of points. They are in the unenviable position of criminals in regards to the police. The criminals can be very competent. They can be very lucky. But the police only have to be competent and lucky ONCE to totally ruin the criminal's life. That is Israel's position. It will only take Syria or Iraq putting together a competent armored force ONCE to cut Israel into embattled enclaves. Israel will go nuclear if that happens or if that is eminent.
5) Biological weapons. Once again, Israel will go to the nuclear option.
6) To state that: "The Palestinians were there first", is to read history selectively. The Palestinians are Arabs. When the Jews first entered and settled the present day Israel and Palestine, the Arabs had not even entered Arabia much less what is now Israel. All of the present day Arab states except Saudi Arabia were conquered in the 8th, 9th, and 10th centuries. What are now known as Arab and Moslem states in the Middle East were then of the Christian religion and Greek linguistically and culturally. Egypt today has at least twelve million Coptic Egyptians. They are Coptic Christians, speak Egyptian not Arabic and are the descendants of the ancient Egyptians. They are also very oppressed by the dominant Arabs.
7) Even with massive military support from the USSR, the Arab states have a very bad military record and not just with Israel. At the present time, there is nothing to indicate that has changed. Can it change? Of course. And Israel will be forced to respond with nuclear weapons if it does. But in any event, the prospect for a protracted war in the region is nil. None of the prospective belligerents have the infrastructure to sustain one. Even the Iraq/Iran war was a largley static war with WWI features.

 

[yankytrash]

I'd much rather see us pull the tick of our butts that is terrorism, and save our hometown oil for when/if a bigger threat ensues. Because a couple thousand middle-easterners are waving around sticks of dynamite and 308 rifles is no reason to panic.

To drill our oil now would be like draining our savings account for a truckload of lolllipops. Tastes good now, but doesn't help when you go to buy a house.

 

[The Reaper]

Good discussion, but back to the firearms angle.

On the RKBA and ammo points. You would probably see supplies of surplus ammo get scarce after a time. As was pointed out anyone who has IMI stuff may find parts etc. in short supply. Although I think it would take a protracted conflict for this to happen.

As for RKBA issues, I don't think much would change. I think RKBA issues would probably take a back seat if the US were heavily involved, otherwise business as usual here for both sides of the issue. The pro and con sides would probably get fodder from Israel's militias. The pro side would get to tout the advantages of the militias and armed citizens, and the con side would dig up "atrocities" committed by the militias.

 

[Alex Szabo]

This is bigger than all of us put together...

Fella's,

If this is examined from a prophetic stance, then it becomes exceedingly easy to conclude that the question may possibly be moot altogether (assuming of course that biblical prophesies have occurred [which I believe in] and any unfulfilled prophesies are yet to be fulfilled). If we look at the premise from a biblical stance and concede that it is the inevitable conclusion, then the scenarios are outlined and can be easily read.

If we are [once again] merely addressing the political considerations underway that would gel and exist in such times, then the whole argument is [again] moot.

1. I think that it is a far-gone conclusion that war WILL break out in the Middle East (i.e. as in REAL soon).
2. The defining boundaries of where we all shall be are contingent on what we subscribe to currently and how we live our lives accordingly.
3. We may be patting ourselves on the back far too much these days considering the fact that we currently have no real teeth in the U.N. [except our ability to pay the tab] due to those paragons of virtue (e.g. China, Cuba, Libya, Sudan et al) [which personally I believe we should simply bug out of the U.N. altogether – another thread in an on itself].

In order to come to terms from some form of predictability state, it would be safe to observe the following key indicators:

1. Where are money trails starting and ending or leading to?
2. What is the Illuminati group up to?
3. What is the U.N. up to in terms of Globalizing thier political agenda?
4. What are the prevailing weather patterns?
5. Is Jupiter aligned with Mars? [Strictly a satirical view only ]

It is what it is or shall be… If what I outline is so, then what’s the big deal fella’s?

 

[Libertarian]

Spartacus, I agree with you on almost every point but one. The Palestinians are not Arabs. Palestinian is a modern (and Western) corruption of Philistine. Where have we heard of them before? The Philistines where in part of what is now Israel before the Israelites left Egypt. (As were many other people who were wiped out by the children of Moses.)

Modern Palestinians associate themselves with the Arabs as a social phenomenon rather than a racial one. A good deal of their genetic material is indeed Arabic, thanks to the Islamic expansion and trade through out that region. But the Palestinians remain more closely related to the Shemi (Lebanese) than to the Arabian peninsula Arabs.

All of the above only refutes the Palestinian association with Arabs. The refutation of their claim to Israel comes through the history you cited. They originally occupied only a small area of northern Israel not Jerusalem nor Gaza, nor the Occupied territories of the West Bank. Those original occupants are dust and the Israelite's descendants the rightful heirs to that land.

I hope the Israelis have the guns & ammo to hang on to their land.

 

[yankytrash]

Good discussion, but back to the firearms angle.

OK, I'll bite.

If some country goes over and whips butts, maybe some of our craftier importers will fly over there quick, dismantle the FALs and AKs that are lying around, and ship back a pile of 'kits'.

AKs and FALs for everybody!!! Yaaaaaaaaaaaaayayyyyyyyyyy!!!

 

[Zander]

I'm thinking Israel's defense is going to be more related to Einstein than Stoner.

And yessiree...they will push that button.

 

[Seeker]

I think it will continue to be a low-intensity conflict for a great long while. This opinion is based on nothing more than my observations since I was old enough to remember the words Palastinian ands Israeli on the TV (probably 1971-72). They always plink at each other, I think they like it that way and it helps to keep gas prices high.

Will the Israelis push the button - ya, just like Y2k caused all the worlds computers to crash. The Moslems would never do anything truly dangerous to their countries. Heck, Saddam Hussin would never have invaded Kuwait if April Whats-her-face had told him that the US Gov't hadn't given the OK. We tricked him into it and then a NY PR firm made up the stories about babies being bayoneted. And waht was accompished? We blew up some Iraqi troops and had to replentish our arms supply (to the benefit of the Military-Industrial complex), and now we have a semi-permament, live-fire training area for pilots. They won't go nuke - they have to live there.

I say we keep our big nose out of it, figure out a better source of fuel (other that fossil) and let'em play!