Violent crime correlated to lead gasoline?

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FrankenMauser

New member
"Hey, Bob. Let's go dig through thousands of graphs, until we find one that somewhat follows this violent crime graph."

:rolleyes:


I mean no offense, mrbatchelor. It's just that Mother Jones cannot be trusted, and their "correlations" are often quite dubious.
 
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Ghost1958

Moderator
The digging for why lunatics do things is what confuses me. Its pretty simple if you think about it.
Cave men killed other cave men for rocks or women or dino teeth or whatever.
Heck even Chimp packs attack other monkeys and kill them just to be killing them.
There are just crazy, mean, and other wise unpleasant folks in the world that get their jollies killing people for whatever reason. Or no reason at all. Always have been always will be. Good folks either fight them off or die.

All the gas sniffers Ive ever seen were passed out shortly or died and werent much of a threat to anyone. :p:)
 
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4V50 Gary

Staff
Modern gas has lead in it? I remember when California had it removed. We bought additives for smoother engine performance. Heck, if the article was right, there would have been more killings in the old days.
 
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Double Naught Spy

New member
That is great and why the axiom that fits that correlation is not causeation.

I mean no offense, mrbatchelor. It's just that Mother Jones cannot be trusted, and their "correlations" are often quite dubious.
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You can't reduce such broad scale social aspects down to singular and overly simplified correlates as being causes. However, while they did look at income, it is interesting that they didn't plot the income v. crime in New Orleans. They would likes find a better correlate there.
 
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mrbatchelor

New member
FrankenMauser said:
"Hey, Bob. Let's go dig through thousands of graphs, until we find one that somewhat follows this violent crime graph."

:rolleyes:


I mean no offense, mrbatchelor. It's just that Mother Jones cannot be trusted, and their "correlations" are often quite dubious.
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Well, you'll see that I didn't claim it was a scientific journal.

One of my liberal friends ws spouting on about a report he had seen, and I started looking for it.

Unfortunately this was the best I could find. Nothing on any peer reviewed publication.

And frankly it's as credible as Michael Moore's interview in the Gary Null video. That's grasping at straws too, but Moore - for reasons unfathomable to me - has credibility with the libs.
 
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mete

New member
Of the new chemicals introduced since 1965 ,80,000 are in regular use !! We live in a chemical soup .Results ? In the last 10 years cancer rate has increased 20 %.Other immune system problems have increased in similar amounts
In the last 30 years men's sperm count has decreased 30 % and sperm quality significantly reduced .Multiple studies demonstrate this ! One major factor is the plasticizers that mimic estrogen !
Better living through chemistry !:(
 
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spacecoast

New member
Didn't the industry start phasing out tetra-ethyl lead in gasoline back in the early 1970's?
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That was the point, there was quite a lag before the kids growing up with less lead turned into adults less prone to crime (theoretically).

While I am also skeptical of the source, the argument seems plausible and it's a good read. On the other hand there are cause/effect attributions made all the time that turn out to be not what they seem.
 
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carguychris

New member
Modern gas has lead in it?
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The avgas used in most piston-powered aircraft still does. Perhaps they should find statistics on violent crimes committed by licensed pilots and aviation mechanics...? ;)
 
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FrankenMauser

New member
Modern gas has lead in it?
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As carguychris mentioned, (most) AvGas and some 'off road' race fuels still contain lead.
There are several different grades of AvGas, with varying concentrations of TEL.

Adding TEL is still one of the most effective methods for increasing the octane rating of gasoline, and getting maximum powder out of high compression engines.



Perhaps they should find statistics on violent crimes committed by licensed pilots and aviation mechanics...?
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I should have slaughtered the entire country by now, if aviation exhaust inhalation (and support equipment using AvGas) were a contributing factor to committing violent crime. :eek:
 
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TheFacts

New member
Of the new chemicals introduced since 1965 ,80,000 are in regular use !! We live in a chemical soup .Results ? In the last 10 years cancer rate has increased 20 %.Other immune system problems have increased in similar amounts
In the last 30 years men's sperm count has decreased 30 % and sperm quality significantly reduced .Multiple studies demonstrate this ! One major factor is the plasticizers that mimic estrogen !
Click to expand...


Correlation is not causation! Where is the proof??




Curiosity yields evolution...satiety yields extinction.
 
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Evan Thomas

New member
FrankenMauser said:
I should have slaughtered the entire country by now, if aviation exhaust inhalation (and support equipment using AvGas) were a contributing factor to committing violent crime.
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Then you must have been very young when you started hanging around airplanes, FrankenMauser. Lead, especially in its organic forms such as TEL, is most toxic to developing nervous systems: babies and small children are most at risk, although at higher levels it's also a neurotoxin in adults.

There's an approximate 20-year time lag between peak levels of lead pollution and rising crime rates, and a similar time lag in dropping rates, after lead additives began to be removed from paint, gasoline, etc. The average age of violent criminals is 22, hence the time lag.

As to the "correlation vs. causation" thing, Mother Jones didn't "discover" the relationship between lead exposure and violent crime; it's been studied in depth by actual scientists, who looked at (among many other things) the childhood blood lead levels of actual criminals compared to more law-abiding folk. The correlation has been found to be statistically significant, i.e. unlikely to be a random one.

For a review of the literature and excruciatingly detailed analysis of this relationship, see this paper: Reyes, J. W. (2007). "The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime". National Bureau of Economic Research.

Interestingly, the above study found the correlation between lead exposure and violent crime in general to be significant; the correlation with murder was not...
 
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Alabama Shooter

New member
As to the "correlation vs. causation" thing, Mother Jones didn't "discover" the relationship between lead exposure and violent crime; it's been studied in depth by actual scientists, who looked at (among many other things) the childhood blood lead levels of actual criminals compared to more law-abiding folk. The correlation has been found to be statistically significant, i.e. unlikely to be a random one.
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Woah, you don't suppose that people who lived in high crime urban areas with millions of autos pouring lead into the air were getting more pollution do you? That could mean that nearly all crime was caused by lead poisoning.

Curious though. What caused all that crime before lead?
 
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Edward429451

Moderator
As carguychris mentioned, (most) AvGas and some 'off road' race fuels still contain lead.
There are several different grades of AvGas, with varying concentrations of TEL.
Click to expand...

Ah, so that explains the mass shootings at truck rallys. :D
 
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Evan Thomas

New member
Curious though. What caused all that crime before lead?
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Umm... I dunno... what else causes brain damage? Malnutrition... being beaten up at an early age... other toxins...

Lead has been poisoning people for at least a couple of thousand years. Heck, the Romans had lead water pipes. :eek:

The remains of the painter Caravaggio have recently been found, and they show high lead levels. He was famously violent and ended up a fugitive after being condemned to death for killing someone -- he died, aged 39, in 1610.

Scientists seeking to shed light on the mysterious death of the Italian artist in 1610 said they are "85% sure" they have found his bones thanks to carbon dating and DNA checks on remains excavated in Tuscany.

Caravaggio's suspected bones come complete with levels of lead high enough to have driven the painter mad and helped finish him off.
​

And then there's plain old human nastiness -- we're not exactly a nice, peaceful species, even with undamaged brains.
 
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