s&w m15-3 question
- Thread starter jimaw2
- Start date
carguychris
New member
In addition, FWIW...
- All post-1935 standard-production rimfire Smith revolvers, including those built today, have recessed chambers. They are intended to contain case-head failures, thus reducing the chances of a total head separation that could render case body extraction impossible without tools. The "Pinned & Recessed" or "P&R" hoopla only applies to older centerfire Magnums.
- IMHO for $550, a 4" tapered-barrel M15-3 better be 98%+ with the original box, papers, and tools, and ideally nickel finish. I would forgive slightly lower condition if it's 2"; however, the M15-3 is a very common variant, and IMHO you should NOT pay $500+ for a 90% or lower "shooter" unless it has a rare barrel configuration, such as the 4" bull barrel or a 5" or 6" tube. You don't describe the gun, but I feel obligated to put in my $0.02.
[EDIT] Just noticed you live in CA, so some of the normal value recommendations may not apply.
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Mike Irwin
Staff
"Prices for vintage S&W revolvers are all over the place."
Prices for all handguns are all over the place right now.
Blue Book, Standard Catalog, etc., are completely out the window at the moment.
Prices for all handguns are all over the place right now.
Blue Book, Standard Catalog, etc., are completely out the window at the moment.
Winchester_73
New member
They were always out the window. You have to check the local or online market to get a true estimate of value. If I could actually get some of the blue book prices, I would sell many of my guns. If I could actually buy for some of the blue book prices, I would buy every example that I could. Other times the books are somewhat accurate. I rarely use them myself.
I think the price is too high. I just got a 15-4 myself (almost the same gun, with a small change which resulted in a dash change) with a target hammer for $310 OTD. Here is the thread about mine. They are common, so if you are patient, you will find one for the right price.
http://thefiringline.com/forums/showthread.php?t=525914
Mike Irwin
Staff
"They were always out the window. You have to check the local or online market to get a true estimate of value."
In years past they actually had a relative level of fidelity to average pricing. Yes, prices are regional. That's always been the case, but if you knew what you were doing, and knew your region, you could look at a Blue Book or Standard Catlog (recent printing, both) and have a pretty good idea what you were going to be seeing price wise in your region.
That's no longer the case. That's no longer even remotely the case.
"I think the price is too high."
I didn't comment on the price of this particular handgun.
In years past they actually had a relative level of fidelity to average pricing. Yes, prices are regional. That's always been the case, but if you knew what you were doing, and knew your region, you could look at a Blue Book or Standard Catlog (recent printing, both) and have a pretty good idea what you were going to be seeing price wise in your region.
That's no longer the case. That's no longer even remotely the case.
"I think the price is too high."
I didn't comment on the price of this particular handgun.
Mike Irwin
Staff
Oh, and your 15?
It appears that you got it in a private sale, which can also greatly skew the pricing factor if the seller isn't up on the insanity that's in the world today. I've lucked into a couple of sales like that.
You wouldn't be able to touch that gun at a show here in Northern Virginia right now for less than $450, and I wouldn't be at all shocked to see it at $600 on some tables.
You certainly wouldn't see it for $350, though.
It appears that you got it in a private sale, which can also greatly skew the pricing factor if the seller isn't up on the insanity that's in the world today. I've lucked into a couple of sales like that.
You wouldn't be able to touch that gun at a show here in Northern Virginia right now for less than $450, and I wouldn't be at all shocked to see it at $600 on some tables.
You certainly wouldn't see it for $350, though.
Obambulate
New member
Everything depends on condition. Around here in Florida I would say they range from $250 for "shooters", to $600 for unfired with box, papers, etc.
carguychris
New member
Mike Irwin said:
My local experience has been closer to Obambulate, but I could certainly understand that values may be higher elsewhere.Obambulate said:
Compared to other S&W revolvers- and particularly the popular collector models, such as N frames- I think there are two factors that skew M15 values.
First, this seems to be one of those models that was generally used, and often used hard, by the original purchasers. This seems to have depressed the value of "shooters" compared to cherry collector-grade guns. The trick for the uninitiated is properly differentiating the two.
Second, the M15 evolved from a high-tech target gun in the early 1950s to one of the most popular LE sidearms in the USA by the late 1960s. Consequently, the pre-M15, no-dash, M15-1, and M15-2 are relatively uncommon, and collectors have driven up the values over the last few years. However, by the time the M15-3 and M15-4 rolled around, LE agencies were snapping them up by the thousands. These guns should not be nearly as valuable as the earlier versions, particularly "shooter" LE trade-ins, but many sellers- and apparently a substantial number of buyers- are not savvy enough to understand this.
OTOH if sellers can ask the higher prices, and enough buyers are willing to pay those prices, perhaps market forces are making my opinion irrelevant.
True. FWIW I bought an 85% nickel M15-3 shooter on GB about 3 years ago for ~$280 including TT&L, which may give you an idea why I think sellers are asking too much at $500 for a similar gun.old bear said:
Winchester_73
New member
Yes, I know. I was saying that line to the thread, and OP. The gun is around for less than that price. Of course, if its 99% and boxed with everything, that won't be easy to find for much less. A loose one? You could literally trip and fall at a gunshow and land on two of them.
I don't know about that Mike. Chances are, there are revolver deals frequently at VA shows, but they don't last. Picture a Sat morning at a show, and you run a little late. You cross through the entrance at 0930, but a few hundred guys got in before then. The show opened at 0900. Odds are one of them will get the revolver. Then you come along "hey, there are no deals here" but they were there, before you. I've got great deals from dealers for a variety of reasons. Sometimes a private person wants an arm and a leg because they don't need the money and don't care and sometimes a dealer is ignorant, or needs the money, and he practically hands it to you with a bow tie. It all depends. Another rule of thumb is the military dealer/collector who has a table, either doesn't care or doesn't research the commercial arms he gets, and the commercial gun dealer will make mistakes on military guns. Of course some dealers know both very well, but this is pretty uncommon in my experience.
Mike Irwin
Staff
"Chances are, there are revolver deals frequently at VA shows, but they don't last."
They're from the same guy selling the magical fairies and the unicorns.
One or two "lucky deal, poor dumb bastard hasn't kept up with the surge in prices" S&Ws does not a trend make at any gunshow or gun shop in the country.
For every smoking hot deal (and yes, they are out there) there are dozens to hundreds of non deals that are following the steep upward trend in prices over the last few years.
Midline Model 10s are now pushing $400+ in Northern Virginia. Five or 6 years ago you could get them or a shade over $200. Ones in really good condition? Between $400 and $600. Any S&W with adjustable sights in either .38 or .357 is well north of that. Model 19s are in the $700-800 range right now.
Model 28s are well over $600, the last three Model 57s I've seen have been $1,100, $1,400, and, IIRC $1,900 for a complete, unfired, boxed gun.
Model 29s are trending higher, as well, but since I normally give them a pass no matter what I can't really comment on those prices other than to say yeah, they've gone a lot higher.
The best way to get a deal these days is to stay the hell away from gun shows and stick with gunshops that do consignment or private sales, and even then it's tough.
The best deals to be had right now, though, aren't on Smith & Wessons, but on Colts.
In short, I don't know what it's like in Pittsburgh. I don't even know what it's like in the Harrisburg area any more because I've lived down here for so long.
But what I do know is that what you're describing bears not a single frigging iota of similarity to what I KNOW the Northern Virginia market to be as I have observed them here for the last 20 years.
So, if magical unicorn farts ARE raining down on Allegheny, Westmorland, and Butler Counties and are somehow keeping prices low, waft some of them this way.
They're from the same guy selling the magical fairies and the unicorns.
One or two "lucky deal, poor dumb bastard hasn't kept up with the surge in prices" S&Ws does not a trend make at any gunshow or gun shop in the country.
For every smoking hot deal (and yes, they are out there) there are dozens to hundreds of non deals that are following the steep upward trend in prices over the last few years.
Midline Model 10s are now pushing $400+ in Northern Virginia. Five or 6 years ago you could get them or a shade over $200. Ones in really good condition? Between $400 and $600. Any S&W with adjustable sights in either .38 or .357 is well north of that. Model 19s are in the $700-800 range right now.
Model 28s are well over $600, the last three Model 57s I've seen have been $1,100, $1,400, and, IIRC $1,900 for a complete, unfired, boxed gun.
Model 29s are trending higher, as well, but since I normally give them a pass no matter what I can't really comment on those prices other than to say yeah, they've gone a lot higher.
The best way to get a deal these days is to stay the hell away from gun shows and stick with gunshops that do consignment or private sales, and even then it's tough.
The best deals to be had right now, though, aren't on Smith & Wessons, but on Colts.
In short, I don't know what it's like in Pittsburgh. I don't even know what it's like in the Harrisburg area any more because I've lived down here for so long.
But what I do know is that what you're describing bears not a single frigging iota of similarity to what I KNOW the Northern Virginia market to be as I have observed them here for the last 20 years.
So, if magical unicorn farts ARE raining down on Allegheny, Westmorland, and Butler Counties and are somehow keeping prices low, waft some of them this way.
Winchester_73
New member
Well, based on what you said we can draw some logical conclusions. First, apparently you must setup at these shows, because most of the best deals are had on Fridays, where the people who bought tables setup in preparation. I assume you setup because you are implying you see each gun and the price of each gun before someone buys it. In addition, if you are setup, you can come early on Saturday, which enables you to find deals before anyone walks in the first day. If you don't setup, then apparently you are consistantly one of the first 10 people through the door, since you "know" what nearly every gun costs at a given show. To know prices so well, you must always be an early bird.
The idea of avoiding gun shows is hogwash, btw. I understand your point why, anymore most guns are over priced, but NOT all. Consider this: where are you most likely to find a gun (other than the internet) which is misidentified, under priced, etc - ding ding ding - at a gun show! Where are you most likely to find a guy who needs money because he is in a bad spot, and wants to sell a gun for a discount - ding ding ding at a gun show! Finally, where is someone likely to take their rare XYZ that they inherited from Uncle Lester, you guessed it! At a gun show! A gun show by sheer odds enables someone to find a fair seller, a great gun, something rare, or even something pretty cheap. Often the gun show enables the seller to get a fair, and sometimes even high price for their gun. I have had bad shows, as you and everyone else has but to say "avoid them" is a little asinine. I know I wouldn't give back most of what I got at shows, even if you only count the last year or two.
We can use the "Nation's Gun Show" aka Chantilly VA, as an example way to look at gun shows. There are approx 1000 tables there. Some tables will have knives and ammo, or accessories, and others will have several guns, perhaps 40+ to one table. If we say that the 1000 tables AVERAGE out to 10 guns per table, thats 10,000 guns. Most of us are looking for one in particular, or 1 deal, or one XYZ, which means we are looking for one in 10,000. IMO, thats a large enough number to where you are likely to find that special XYZ. And for that matter, there is no way to be the first guy to see all 10k guns, even if you are setup with your own table. So in other words, yes, you do miss out on things. We all do, its the nature of the beast.
As for the small shows, despite having less sellers, less tables and less guns, they also have less competition. I've found great things at little shows myself. Its the thrill of the hunt, but you have to get out there and hunt to get anything because the great find rarely finds you.
My prices are not far off to what you quote, but in you saying "you won't touch that here in VA at a gun show" came off as absolute. There are many deals to be had at just about every gun show. Its why most of us go.
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Mike Irwin
Staff
"First, apparently you must setup at these shows, because most of the best deals are had on Fridays, where the people who bought tables setup in preparation."
Nope. But I have been door sitter on Friday's "preview" more times that I care to remember, or one of the first people through the doors on a Saturday open.
And by "setting up" you infer that these hundreds, if not thousands, of wonder deals are transpiring between... dealers. Little to no public involvement.
So, if dealers are getting all, or even most, of the "deals," are there then any deals to be had? No.
But, once again, as I have repeatedly said, YES, THERE ARE DEALS THAT CAN BE HAD. I'm not so sure why it's such a difficult concept, though, to understand that a deal is a transient thing, a special event, while the average prices that I've noted have been established over time.
I wish like hell every gun show I went to had $300 Model 15s, $350 Model 19s, and $400 Model 25s.
But the simple truth is, they don't.
Once again, though, yes, you can occasionally find that deal gun for that kind of price, but the simple reality is that you're going to find prices that are a lot closer to what I've noted than not, and on the vast majority of the guns that you do find.
"As for the small shows, despite having less sellers, less tables and less guns, they also have less competition."
But they've got the same core group of dealers AND the same core group of attendees.
And in today's high volumn, low inventory environment dealers at even the little shows aren't going to be dropping their prices much, if any.
And guess what?
Here in Northern Virginia, they're NOT.
But, since you apparently and obviously know this market better than I, I'd like to beg you to come down here and act as my bird dog and sniff these wonderful deals out for me.
I won't accept anything less than a $5 Model 10....
Nope. But I have been door sitter on Friday's "preview" more times that I care to remember, or one of the first people through the doors on a Saturday open.
And by "setting up" you infer that these hundreds, if not thousands, of wonder deals are transpiring between... dealers. Little to no public involvement.
So, if dealers are getting all, or even most, of the "deals," are there then any deals to be had? No.
But, once again, as I have repeatedly said, YES, THERE ARE DEALS THAT CAN BE HAD. I'm not so sure why it's such a difficult concept, though, to understand that a deal is a transient thing, a special event, while the average prices that I've noted have been established over time.
I wish like hell every gun show I went to had $300 Model 15s, $350 Model 19s, and $400 Model 25s.
But the simple truth is, they don't.
Once again, though, yes, you can occasionally find that deal gun for that kind of price, but the simple reality is that you're going to find prices that are a lot closer to what I've noted than not, and on the vast majority of the guns that you do find.
"As for the small shows, despite having less sellers, less tables and less guns, they also have less competition."
But they've got the same core group of dealers AND the same core group of attendees.
And in today's high volumn, low inventory environment dealers at even the little shows aren't going to be dropping their prices much, if any.
And guess what?
Here in Northern Virginia, they're NOT.
But, since you apparently and obviously know this market better than I, I'd like to beg you to come down here and act as my bird dog and sniff these wonderful deals out for me.
I won't accept anything less than a $5 Model 10....
Winchester_73
New member
If you're simply saying good deals aren't easy to find, and you're discussing the average prices, or retail in general, then yea, I agree. My point was simply that none of that is reason not to go. A deal is a transient event, but on the other hand, deals are present at every show. As for the dealers buying from each other, they often buy lots of guns, so yea, that does account for why most of us "can't find a darn thing" and dealers like to do favors for each other anyways. I can't answer how often something like this happens, but I know one thing, a prudent dealer will sell on Friday (if he needs to) to make sure he has funds for Saturday morning, when stuff rolls in.
I suppose the bigger question for me is that if I normally have a good show where I get something nice, or some cheaply priced stuff, is it more a reflection of me or the show I am at? Finding a deal is first about knowing what you're looking at, part luck, and part of it is dilligence, meaning you show up at these events. Fortune certainly favors the aggressive.
Sounds like a deal for me, because afterall, why should I buy for more myself when I can help you out!
I suppose the bigger question for me is that if I normally have a good show where I get something nice, or some cheaply priced stuff, is it more a reflection of me or the show I am at? Finding a deal is first about knowing what you're looking at, part luck, and part of it is dilligence, meaning you show up at these events. Fortune certainly favors the aggressive.
Sounds like a deal for me, because afterall, why should I buy for more myself when I can help you out!
Well I am not going to argue with obviously more knowledgeable guys like Chris, but I just did a quick check on GB and I only saw 10 Model 15's for sale. So I don't think they are that common. They are older guns after all (.38 special) and if one is in really good condition I don't think $500 is too much.
Of course I live in NJ where there are no gun shows. So for us it's either retail or the internet. We don't have the luxury of being choosy.
John
Of course I live in NJ where there are no gun shows. So for us it's either retail or the internet. We don't have the luxury of being choosy.
John