Predicting future gun "investments"

[MrWesson]

Have any of you noticed any trends in collecting firearms that would allow you to determine if something is going to increase in value or is it a crapshoot?

I'm not talking about election panic AR's here.

Classic firearms that outrun inflation or panic buying.

Basically if you had a hefty amount of money invested and wanted to take a few thousand to "play the market" how would you go about it?

Read an article that inspired the thread about restoring/collecting old cars and predictions on what will become classics.

 

[BarryLee]

The most obvious aspect of collecting to me seems to be availability. If a gun was somewhat popular and is no longer available it seems the price would generally increase. However, this can be problematic since manufactures sometimes revive old models. I own an original S&W Model 66 and Colt Mustang II both of which I assume had a little collectible value. However, in the last few years both manufacturers have revived those models, so I assume my guns are slightly less desirable than before.

So, I suppose the most obvious trend in collecting is supply and demand. Look for popular models that were discontinued and hope they remain desirable.

 

[cjwils]

The history of the manufacturer and the reputation of the gun is a big part of it. You might think that the best gun of all time was something from the Joe Smith Company, but if Joe Smith went broke and disappeared after a few years without ever establishing a big reputation, then that best gun of all time might never be very collectible. On the other hand, nearly any Colt revolver is collectible.

 

[kilimanjaro]

It's the same as with classic cars, coins, books, what have you. Look for what is in demand now and evaluate that for longevity of demand, supply considerations, price, and potential price. Then make your choice.

Mauser K98s, they'll remain popular. M1 Garand and Carbines, Springfields, Krags, M1917s, always a favorite. Lee-Enfields, a perennial. Genuine No. 5 Jungle Carbines. K31s, they won't last forever and will do better, the cult of Swiss gnomes is too strong.

Mosin-Nagant rifles, nothing after 1933 and Czarist or early Soviet markings are popular now. Same for Nagant revolvers. The 1944 carbine in minty condition looks like it may gain value.

Handguns, the same thing, you know what will be in demand. Lugers, GI 1911's, that kind of stuff. I think S&W revolvers in .44 Special will do very well. The cult following is out there.

Modern rifles, the Model 70 would be a good choice. Ruger No. 1 in .303 British was made in a lot of 500, most of which went to Canada and Australia, so that is a good choice, but with any modern production firearm, the factory could start producing it in quantity at any time. Ruger No. 1's in the African calibers look to be good, but they can always make more. .404 Jeffery seems to be a good one, though, and .45/70 doesn't stay unsold for very long.

Part of your cost is going to be a good storage safe and insurance, factor that in your plan. You're going to be buying in top condition as well, so paying premium prices perhaps.

If it's iconic now, it will be iconic in the future. If you want a crapshoot, go to a casino.

 

[TXAZ]

In the US, who is in the White House will have more to do with your $ loss or gain than any other factor.
The real return for weapons is personal, family security.

If "Candidate X" wins in November, your current collection could go up in value 20%. "Candidate Y" could cause a 20% loss. And a "Candidate Z" could drive the value to near-zero.