I'm turning into an amatuer criminologist...

Erik

New member
I've thrown together some stuff, the top two paragraphs are cut and paste, the rest of it is mostly mine, to combat misinformation among some of the antis I "debate" with in other forums:

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There are approximately two million defensive gun uses (DGU's) per year by law abiding citizens. That was one of the findings in a national survey conducted by Gary Kleck, a Florida State University criminologist in 1993. Prior to Dr. Kleck's survey, thirteen other surveys indicated a range of between 800,000 to 2.5 million DGU's annually. However these surveys each had their flaws which prompted Dr. Kleck to conduct his own study specifically tailored to estimate the number of DGU's annually.

Subsequent to Kleck's study, the Department of Justice sponsored a survey in 1994 titled, the National Survey of Private Ownership of Firearms. Using a smaller sample size than Kleck's, this survey estimated 1.5 million DGU's annually.

So at 800,000 DGUs annually we get 2,192 DGUs per day. At 1.5 million DGUs annually we get 4,110 DGUs per day. At 2.5 million DGUs annually we get 6,849 DGUs per day.

There were 1,531,044 violent crimes reported in America in 1998. (FBI UCR, 1998) This includes all categories of those crimes deemed violent in nature.

The FBI's Crime in the United States estimated that 65% of the 16,914 murders in 1998 were committed with firearms.

In one-quarter of the incidents of violent crime, offenders used or threatened to use a weapon. (Bureau of Justice Statistics, Dept. of Justice. 1998) NCVS (National Crime Victim Survey) defines assaults involving weapons as aggravated; thus almost all aggravated assaults (95%) involved a weapon. (Assaults without weapons are classified as aggravated if the victim suffers a serious injury.) Offenders had or used a weapon in slightly more than half of all robberies, compared with 5% of all rapes/sexual assaults.

According to the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) in 1998, 670,500 victims of serious violent crimes (rape and sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault) stated that they faced an offender with a firearm.

Lets look at the above:

At 2 million defensive gun uses (DGUs)annually per Dr. Kleck, guns were legally used by non law enforcement and military personal in approximately 468,956 more incidents than the total rate of violent crime in America in 1998. (1998 is the last year a completed FBI UCR is available.)

Of the unfortunate 16,914 murders in the United States in 1998, an estimated 10,994 were committed with firearms. That is .0234435 (2.34%) of the 468,956 figure above. It is .005497 (0.55%) of the estimated 2 million DGUs occuring annaully in America. Or if you prefer the lower figure of 800,000, it comes out to .0137425 (1.37%).

One quarter of violent crimes, 382,761 incidents, involved the use or threat of the use of a weapon in 1998. Using the 2 million DGU figure, citizens used guns to lawfully protect themselves in 1998 1,617,239 more times than criminals used all categories of weapons. Even at only 800,000 DGUs Americans stopped crime in 417,239 more incidents than the total rate of violent crime use with a weapon.

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Maybe if I keep at it, I'll get myself referenced someday. :) How would one cite a TFL thread as a academic reference, by the way? :) :D

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I corrected an error in my reporting thanks to Mal. (Thanks Mal!)I forgot to move the decimals over... Duh. That's what i get for typing too fast. :)


[This message has been edited by Erik (edited June 01, 2000).]

[This message has been edited by Erik (edited June 03, 2000).]
 

Glenn E. Meyer

New member
I'm going to the American Society of Criminology meeting in November. I'll mention your name.

As far as citations, both the MLA and APA style guides have templates for web site referencing.

Another tidbit from the subjunctive universe
of academia.
(from the drug thread).
 

Rob Pincus

New member
Nice tigh packet of info there.. I just printed it out and tacked it up on one of my cork boards for future reference.. Thanks!

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-Essayons
 

Erik

New member
:)
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I just don't get antis. A guy posted a response, something along the lines of stats can be skewed. I pointed out that the violent crime figures provided are straight from the FBI's UCR. He went and spent some time, coming back with an example of why the UCR is unreliable: The DOJ shows... Four less violent crimes for 1998 than the FBI UCR. Four. They increments are virtually too small to recalculate on my calculator. Then he goes on to cite surveys indicating that the crime often goes unreported. So I respond that with that being the case DGUs would likewise go unreported. I don;t think that will sit well with him. ;) Antis amaze me with their ability to see what they want when they want.
 

Erik

New member
Mal,
I did. Thanks! Anyone who copied, pasted or printed my initial post should take the time to redo it. I had a correction or two to make, and they're done.

[This message has been edited by Erik (edited June 03, 2000).]
 

ICBentley

New member
Good stats, well presented.

If I read this correctly, there are 1.5 million violent crimes commited yearly and between 1 and 2 million violent crimes averted by the use of handguns. Arguably half of intended violent crimes are stopped by guns.

Thanks,
Bentley+
 
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