Fickle market and gun maker "mistakes"

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I got to thinking about all the guns and calibers that gun makers have dropped over the last century, and how many of them are still being sold (used) at gun shows, and in shops, private sales, etc., for prices much greater than they sold for new, adjusted for inflation.

Sure, some of them are going to collectors, but a lot of them are still being bought by people who plan to use them.

Seems odd that guns the makers dropped because no one was buying them, are in high demand on the used market.

Oh, not ALL of them, but a lot. Is it the "fickle market" (or something in human nature?) that only has us realize how good a product was after it is no longer made??

Did (do?) the gunmakers make "mistakes" dropping guns from production too soon?

Or is it just the distortion of a market with fixed supply?? OR the fact that buyers tastes change, and was once a drag on the market is today a rare gem?

I got to thinking about my own collection, and realized that the majority of my guns are out of production models, but were in regular production during my lifetime. ok, not the Lugers, but... most of the others

Remingtons, Winchesters, Marlins, S&W, Colts, etc, I seem to have favored the guns not enough other people bought at the time. Anyone else notice this about their favorites??

 

[g.willikers]

Some folks want what they can't have, which might explain it.

 

[ligonierbill]

Well, production costs have driven some off the market (Savage 99). You don't see high quality, reasonably priced SxS shotguns made in the US for that reason. Fox Sterlingworths command a pretty good price, and you rarely see the Hunter Arms "Fulton" boxlocks.

On the other hand, while bottom feeders dominate the gun cases, plenty of revolvers are still available. Ruger has been making Blackhawks for a long time, and S&W still sells their classic series. Different ownership, but you can still buy a Model 70 (I hear they're pretty good) or a Model 700 (Yeah, I know, "Remlin").

But maybe the biggest factor is the innovative (or abominable, depending on your point of view) use of new materials and manufacturing techniques to produce inexpensive firearms that actually perform very well. I have a couple. No admiring comments when I uncase them at the range, but they do shoot "braggin'" groups. And if (I mean when) I fall coming down the mountain, the stock doesn't get any uglier.

Don't get me wrong. I love my old Colts and Smiths, and I'll never part with my "New Haven" Model 70 Classic Featherweight. In fact, the vast majority of my collection is pre-1950. But I'll be packing a Ruger American this deer season.

 

[TXAZ]

+1 G.willikers.

I'd add that just because someone builds a better mousetrap / gun, does NOT mean the world will beat a path to their door. Often the marketeers are better at creating a more compelling perception for a lesser product than those selling a gem without as creative a marketing department.

 

[buck460XVR]

+1 G.willikers.

+2 G.willikers


Prime example is the Colt Python. Last ones produced were dogs at the LGS and no one wanted them. Now they are the Holy Grail of Handguns.

Some things just go out of favor, like SXS shotguns. New double fans realized that O/Us gave a single sight plane. Those of us that grew up and learned on SXSs never knew it existed.

Some things were just introduced at the wrong time and/or may have had issues because they were sold before the bugs were worked out..like the Ruger auto .44 carbines. Good factory hunting .44 ammo was not as common as comparable 30-30 ammo and the guns were very ammo specific. They also liked to be really clean, not something required of the old lever 30-30s.


But some guns were just mistakes, and folks, other than collectors, still don't want them, long after they are gone.

 

[Tony Z]

It ain't the steak, it's the sizzle!

Growing up, I was taught three guns: shotgun (squirrels, rabbits & grouse), rifle (whitetail deer) & .22 rifle (plinking to keep the eye sharp). Father had a .22 pistol, only brought out to our snake infested camp area.

His generation viewed objects as tools for hunting/food gathering. Today we've shifted into hunting as a hobby/relaxation and shooting itself, as a hobby. The means to the end (the hobby) is now acquisition of firearms. some of these firearms are duplicity in themselves of earlier calibers. Some have very limited appeal, such as use only for bench rest shooters or cowboy action.

The growth & scope of the market is the limiting factor: A company cannot keep expanding forever, developing new products, if the market becomes more and more limited with each product's introduction. Case in point is what has become of Winchester, Marlin, Remington. Each would have been better to have forfeited total sales growth with limitations on total number of products, in order to maximize profits on a smaller number of total products.

Personally, I would like to see how Henry evolves over the next five years. Does it retain its business model, limiting itself to its present market? Or does it think that just because it is a success in the present market, it can be a success in any market it enters?

 

[Skans]

True that collectors like guns that were not produced very long. But, they typically have to have something else appealing about them. For example, no on is beating down the doors to buy the Rogaks that pop up on gunbroker from time to time. Rare? Yes. Junk? Also yes.

Check out the Colt 2000's. People can't sell those either - and they have a pony on them!

Pythons, while overrated, at least are good quality revolvers.

I wish I could determine which interesting current-production guns would become desirable and collectible. Here are some of my thoughts on the matter:

Rohrbaugh 9mm
Boberg XR9S or XR9-45
STI LS40
Tavor
SRM 2016 12 gauge
Heizer 5.56 and 7.62
Bond Arms .357

Any others??? Ideas?

 

[Glenn E. Meyer]

I saw a NIB Colt 2000 at the local gun show for $700. I'll pass.

I don't think the Heizers will go anywhere. I picked one up - same size almost as the modern 380s. So why?

And why would I want to collect them?

 

[BlueTrain]

It is no doubt a fickle market. But from the manufacturer's point of view, it's marketing.

There seem to be guns, or used to be, made expressly for the collector's market. All those commerative editions from Colt, S&W and especially Winchester. These are guns meant only to be collected and really never fired.

There are outside cost factors that companies do not really have any control over and someone already mentioned the Savage 99. That also includes Mannlicher–Schönauer sporting rifles and all those English double rifles. But they were also intended for the high end of the market, not for those who shop at Gander Mountain. That market is still around but it's limited. They still sell Ferraris, don't they?

I never though any S&W revolver was inexpensive, even when I was buying the gun of the month. And I definitely don't think they're inexpensive now.

But there's another factor. We can sometimes be guilty of projecting our own wishes onto what we think the market for guns is. We wonder why people don't buy those $950 S&W .45 Colt revolvers. It's because they buy $550 plastic pistols instead.

Only Ruger gets it right. They'll make anything they can think of (how about a .303 British No. 1?) in the quantity they think will sell, then make something else. Most of the others do pretty much the same thing. It might seem like Colt doesn't but it seems like they've made what they make in just about every variation conceivable. I do wish they still made the .380 Government Model, which they also made in every variation possible. I still couldn't afford one, though.

 

[Skans]

...same size almost as the modern 380s. So why? And why would I want to collect them?

Why? Well, Stinger Pen pistols are selling for roughly $800 - more than twice what they sold for originally. Single-shot .22lr.

COP .357's selling for $1,500 +/- $300. 4-shot .357 with EXTREMELY heavy trigger pull!

Claridge Hi-Tec pistols (big 9mm pistol) selling for over 1K now.

To name a few. Notice, these are guns that have no practical use, but they fetch crazy prices. Now, how long do you think Heizer will be making chunky stainless AR and AK pocket guns?

To your second question: Why would you want to collect one? I can't answer that, but I can answer why SOMEONE might want to buy one of those Heizer guns:

1. Just to say that you have one.
2. To take pictures of you and your friends shooting the silly thing
3. The Thunder .50 BMG pistol is too spendy and can't be found - this'll do.
4. Cheap chest-pounding man-thrills.
5. To be the first woman to ever shoot one.
6. Self defense - the bullet velocity might not stop an attacker but the concussion at close range sure will!
7. Interesting paper weight.
8. Hmmm, this wouldn't be the most ridiculous addition to someone's collection. See Braverman pen pistol, Grad Knife-gun/revolver, Powell Knife pistol and Arsenal AF2011 Double 45.
9. Well, at least it's not plastic!
10. It works better than a .44 magnum if you ever wanted to say "But being this is a pocket AK47, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya, punk?"

Oh, and FYI, I don't have one

 

[T. O'Heir]

"...the makers dropped because no one was buying them..." Usually because the thing didn't meet the marketing department's sales projections. Or the marketing types announced stuff before the engineers made it actually work(Ruger USGI). Or it was the answer to an unasked question.
"...how about a .303 British No. 1?..." Made by negotiating with Ruger and funded by Canadian shooters. Every one was pre-sold, as I recall.

 

[BlueTrain]

On that last point, some manufacturers (not just guns, either) who neither want to diversify nor grow, apparently operate with a considerable backlog. That's one way to do it. Another thought is that if you wanted something that has gone out of production, why didn't you buy one while they were available. In my case, I either bought one or I could afford to buy one (because I bought something else). It's amazing how long some things stay in production nevertheless, even though "they don't make them the way they used to." Colt Government Models and S&W M&P revolvers come to mind.

Sometimes within a corporation there is some friction between the manufacturing, who make things, and marketing, who sell things but want it in another color, and management, who only want to make money, preferably a lot all at once. I understand that many guns now come in colors, so that barrier has been overcome.

On the flip side of manufacturers dropping guns too soon, there are a few examples that were manufactured surprisingly recently, although I will quickly admit that twenty years ago to me is like yesterday.

 

[larryh1108]

I think that before Glock mass marketed their plastic wonders, everybody made their guns from steel and wood. Since everybody made them, they weren't unique. How many plastic models made today will be collectible in 30-50 years? We all wonder but I don't think we'll see the desire for "another" old but plastic pistol in 30 years like we appreciate the steel and wood pistols of the past.

 

[johnwilliamson062]

I worked at a manufacturer with a machine and tooling that had been making a very profitable item for 30+ years. The machine was obsolete, no parts available, no expert knowledge about it. The decision was made that if the machine went down with a major issue the product would be discontinued. Fixing it would PROBABLY be profitable, but no one seemed confident costs wouldn't spiral out of control since there was no one around who really knew about it anymore. Even molds and some other custom tooling can easily run $100,000. If it wears out it's sometimes cheaper to scrap a legacy product and replace it with a modern substitute.

Sometimes a company may have plenty of "profit" but no cash flow.

Maybe one product is making money, but production resources can be switched to another that makes more.

The industry in general seems pretty risk averse and negative. Both supply and demand side. Look up the first couple of threads about the RAR or the LCR.

 

[Tom Servo]

OR the fact that buyers tastes change, and was once a drag on the market is today a rare gem?

Collector's value is primarily driven by two forces: appeal and scarcity.

Consider the first Superman comic. Copies sell for tens of thousands of dollars. Why? Because it's the first of something. But the main reason for the value is because it's rare. The paper on which those were printed doesn't age well, and very few copies have survived to the present day.

(In the 1990's, comic book publishers tried to capitalize on that by printing millions of "collectible" issues. The first problem was that there were, well, millions of them. The second was that modern paper is much more durable. The result was huge overruns that nearly killed the industry.)

When I consider the Colt Python, I see a beautifully finished gun. I owned one and found the action problematic and fragile. They've been out of production for so long now that replacement parts are drying up.

In that case, we've got an item with a great deal of interest that is also essentially perishable. Both factors are needed for collector's value.

The Heizer? Meh. It's not special. The Colt All American? A niche piece for the collector of oddities, but it was a dog as a functional product.

On the other hand, we have the innumerable "special editions" from S&W and Ruger that don't gain value simply because there are so many of them.

 

[Doyle]

I think that some of it is certain manufacturers being extremely pig-headed by wanting to produce "their" version of something even when there is no real market need. Take the Ruger .480 for instance. Instead of putting their backing behind the .460S&W, Ruger insisted on producing their version of the big-bore magnum revolver caliber. It isn't a bad caliber - but I just don't think there is room in the marketplace for both the .480 and .460 to be successful.

Remington did the same thing with the 6mm. They insisted on barging forward with it in spite of the near identical ballistics of the .243. Now, it has only a niche following.

 

[johnwilliamson062]

Instead of putting their backing behind the .460S&W

The 480 Ruger was out several years before the 460 SW. It was likely in development before the 500 SW was announced.

 

[BlueTrain]

Well, that was also the situation a hundred years ago and earlier, beginning with the introduction of metallic cartridges. Apparently when a manufacturer introduced a new firearm, it would be in a unique caliber, at least with long guns. Of course, everything was new then and everything they did was innovative to some degree. It took a while before some cartridge became more popular than others. It always helped when the army adopted some particular cartridge. In the meantime, lots of people bought a gun and continued to use it for the rest of their life, although they probably didn't shoot it as much as people seem to today, the cost of ammunition being what it was. That helped a lot of cartridges hang on for decades. Many did not go back into production after WWII, however.

Changing tastes in firearms also called for new cartridges, too, sometimes. The extra long cartridges that worked just fine in single shot rifles weren't so practical for lever actions, for instance. The evolution continues, even though you probably don't notice it.

I think there was also a reluctance to use a cartridge that had another maker's name on it, too. Colt made guns that used S&W cartridges but they always called the caliber something different.

 

[Skans]

Tom, you did a nice job of pointing out what current production items which you think will not become collectible. But, we all know that SOMETHING currently produced will eventually become collectible - so, take a little risk here and make your predictions on what will become collectible!

 

[Sequins]

It will take a very long time but I think the M9 will be collected as the GI 1911s are collected.

I don't think any polymer striker pistol will be collectible until we switch to laser guns and glock 17s are rare, aka never.