Defensive gun use estimate by an Accountant

[bookkie]

There are approximately 271,000,000 people in the United States. It is estimated that 83% will be the victim of violent crime sometime in their lives. 271,000,000 times 83% is 224,930,000 people who will be the victim of a violent crime. It is estimated that 40-50% of the population owns guns. Thus 224,930,000 of these times 45% is approximately 101,218,500 of these victims who own guns. If the average person lives 67 years then by dividing 101,218,500 by 67 gives us an estimated number of yearly victims of violent criminal attack who owned a gun. This number is 1,510,724. Thus, I would estimate the defensive use of firearms at approximately 1.5 million every year. This is just a reasonable check (a common sense approach) on the stats being put out by various groups. In my opinion the study that only shows 80,000 defensive gun uses per year is grossly underestimated. This lends further support to Kleck's number of 1.2 to 2.5 million defensive uses per year.

Richard

 

[James K]

OK, I am on your side, but...? "It is estimated.." I am an old bureaucrat and that means, "I am going to throw at you a figure I just made up to convince you and the other idiot bosses..." Somehow, I don't believe 83% of us will be victims of violent crime, even if you count the time someone did a hit and run on my mailbox.

 

[Dennis]

I guess some folks are victims of violent crimes many times, other folks never. I've been stabbed twice, shot at several times (hit once) and got my butt whipped a few times (once pretty bad). It all started in the sixth grade (I believe) and stopped when I married my present wife and realized this nonsense was gettin' dangerous!

All injuries since then were accidents: car wrecks (they hit me!), cut finger (to da bone!), busted back (EMS call), etc.

In any case, some of us filled in for you non-victims of violent crime buy getting hurt more than once. Sometimes the cause can be environmental (like to walk to work in Washington, DC at night?) or dumb-dumb attacks (I don't care if you are a Golden Gloves champ! You can't say that to me! Ouch, Ow, etc.).

Yes, with proper training, a person can change his ways!

 

[bookkie]

Jim:

Nice try, but these are not my #'s. They are the anti-gunner's numbers. For refereces to them please see.... http://www.ncpa.org.

Hey, you should know an accountant would never give a number out without support.

Besides this estimate is just that an estimate, based upon facts that can be verified. It's only intention is to judge the resonableness of the stat's put out by various groups.

Richard

 

[45King]

You might want to check out the follwoing web site:

<a href="http://pulpless.com/gunclock/">The World Wide Web Gun Defense Clock</a>

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Shoot straight regards, Richard

 

[45King]

You might want to check out the follwoing web site:

<a href="http://pulpless.com/gunclock/">The World Wide Web Gun Defense Clock</a>

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Shoot straight regards, Richard

 

[fal308]

Dennis
I really appreciate you taking my share of violent attacks and lumps (though some of the lumps must have gotten through when I was younger too)

 

[James K]

I, too, appreciate Dennis standing in for me when violence came along. Happy days from now on, Dennis.

As to "estimated", it just proves to me that the anti-gunners make up their statistics. I KNOW that when a bureaucrat says "it is estimated" that the number is, at best, an EWAG. More likely it is a WAG, and probably it's OTA. (Educated wild-a*s guess, wild-a*s guess, and "outta thin air.")

I am reminded of the auctioneer who was preparing his catagog. He put "attributed to Michaelangelo" in the description of a horrendous daub. His assistant asked, "Who attributed that mess to Michaelangelo?" The auctioneer replied, "I did, just now."

 

[Jeff Thomas]

bookkie, I too am on your side. However ... don't your calculations assume that every time a gun owner is violently attacked he / she has and uses their gun to deter the crime? Now, I don't think this invalidates your final result, but it does cause me to question the methodology.

I am sure that firearms are used to deter considerable crime every year that probably never gets into the 83% number. Some stat's are just not possible to accurately acquire. For example, I had a CCW course instructor that told us he had heard that the average firefight in Vietnam lasted something like 23 seconds. Now, how in the world could anyone have gathered such a statistic? Or, does this explain why we didn't wrap up that episode sooner? Were our officers watching their stopwatches instead of commanding their troops?

I know ... let's pass a law to require such reporting!

[This message has been edited by Jeff Thomas (edited April 03, 1999).]

 

[JimmyBCool]

Hey Dennis,

Don't take this the wrong way.....

Be careful out there, man. Sounds like your guardian angel isn't doing too good a job

James

 

[Dennis]

fal308 & Jim Keenan,
You're welcome, boys. But most of my injuries happened because I was too dumb to run. (Pain can bring wisdom!)
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When I was in EMS I noticed that some neighborhoods required our services more often than others (per capita). We even had some patients we called "frequent fliers"! Environment, lifestyle, etc. cause the incidents of violent crime to be much higher for some folks than for others. That's all I meant.

 

[Grayfox]

Dennis,
While I seemed to be able to dodge a little better, like you, I was young, dumb and full of myself once upon a time. Like the saying goes "I've been shot at and missed, s*it at and hit!"
With age comes wisdom. The wisdom to know your too old and crippled to pull that crap anymore!

[This message has been edited by Grayfox (edited April 04, 1999).]