“Reliable” gun statistics

TXAZ

New member
I’ve been looking for objective, non-emotional data regarding shootings in the US.

Somewhere there is truth. But I’m not sure I found it regarding shootings both offensive and defensive as the politics:
Apparently many cities have been massaging their data (Chicago most notably) to look better and some politicians and organizations do the same to make it look worse for their own interest.
Even the data from the FBI is in question due to their loss of credibility and the politicizing of that agency resulting in Congress members and other law enforcement discrediting them.

Some newspapers have caught overt intentional local errors but I’m wondering if any objective data exists at all for the country overall?

Any hints?
 
The CDC statistics don’t give the details criminologists often want but they are usually a better indicator of number of actual shootings than the UCRs.
 

tipoc

New member
The data used by the FBI are based on local law enforcement agencies sending in their information to the FBI. The problem there is that sending it in is voluntary and there are no standards on the reporting. So what you get is a general picture. So the data for 2020 will begin to be compiled in 2021.

The CPRC isn't bad. But none are exactly complete.

https://crimeresearch.org/2017/04/n...54-us-counties-2014-zero-murders-69-1-murder/

Most local police Depts. track ups and down in crime rates accurately. They look at crimes reported, types of crime, arrests, etc.

A good deal depends on what you are looking for.

tipoc
 
The UCRs rely on two numbers - reported numbers that can be massaged, and “estimated” numbers that rely on historical reporting. Between the two of those, UCRs have more reliability issues than CDC numbers.
 

tipoc

New member
The UCRs rely on two numbers - reported numbers that can be massaged, and “estimated” numbers that rely on historical reporting. Between the two of those, UCRs have more reliability issues than CDC numbers.

I agree, in general. One or the other may be more useful depending on what a person is looking for.

The UCRs are very good at reporting trends. It can only do this based on how it collects data.

The CDC works differently. It's "Leading Causes of Death" figures, for example, are accurate with specific limitations.

Methods—Data in this report are based on information
from all death certificates filed in the 50 states and the District of
Columbia in 2017. Causes of death classified by the International
Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD–10) are ranked
according to the number of deaths assigned to rankable causes.
Cause-of-death statistics are based on the underlying cause of
death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_06-508.pdf



This discussion is a bit abstract without knowing what the op is looking for.

tipoc
 
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TXAZ

New member
Thanks. There are some well packaged (but “emotional”) data sets but their producers have vested interests in slanting the data to support their emotional argument, ala Brady, Moms Demand Action, Everytown, Giffords, ...
 

fastbolt

New member
In order for statistics developed by someone else to have relevance to a question you wish to ask, you have to consider the purpose for which the statistics were gathered the first place. Then, you have to consider how they interpreted their data.

Even the FBI cautions against trying to interpret the results of its cumulative UCR/LEOKA data sets and thinking to apply it to "answering" questions it hasn't asked, and trying to apply it to some specific geographical location.

Now, firearms trainers in LE sometimes have it a bit easier, because they can look at a growing body of available incident data (as general or as narrow as they feel appropriate) and use it to learn to ask better questions.

Instead of attempting to apply it in some "predictive" manner (good luck with that), they can look for commonalities of factors and conditions of documented incidents in ways that might help them ask better questions about how to design their training goals to hopefully to better prepare their people for OIS situations they feel are the greatest "typical threat" facing their people.

Instead of just looking at "gear-centric" influences, meaning "things" that come out of a box or package, how might they adjust their focus and training emphasis and efforts in ways that might serve as "multipliers", and help their people become better able to apply the particulars of the "lessons" of their training across a wider range of potential situations and circumstances? Awareness? Adaptability? Revisit policies and procedures? Keep better abreast of the changing legal landscape (like case law)? Raise the bar of what's considered "acceptable competency"?

It's not as simple as thinking to create cut 'n paste tactics for 1 attacker, 2 attackers, 3 attackers ... an attacker with a pistol versus an "assault weapon", an attacker possibly on drugs, or suffering a mental health episode, etc.

There are a lot of pretty good reasons why LE trainers have agreed that each and every OIS incident is virtually unique. It may share some of the basic common elements (attacker, threat of serious injury or death, a chaotic & rapidly evolving situation, etc) ... but the chances of everything lining up to repeat itself in other incidents is a real stretch.

What can their trained people do with their gear, and the knowledge, training and experiential knowledge they may have gained (more time on the job learning to successfully apply their knowledge and training), etc?

What are they going to require as a minimum level of demonstrable adequacy and competency, and how do they decide to effectively assess and measure that? How to document it?

Private trainers? Well, obviously they may have their own previous experience and knowledge (professional local, state or fed backgrounds), as well as any acquired information based upon what they've learned to be the actions of their "students" post-training. Then, there's their own personal preferences and any desire to look at the type of data they may decide to collate and interpret into "statistics" as they wish.

Me? I'm the inevitable product of my years of LE training and experience (seeing crimes that occurred in my area of responsibility, and learning of it from cops and trainers in neighboring jurisdictions throughout those years) ... and being exposed to ongoing LE-based training required as part of my responsibilities of having been a LE firearms trainer for a fair number of years. When the cops I helped train asked me a question, if I didn't have the answer, I was expected to start looking for one (which meant knowing where to start looking for one). If the wrong question was being asked, I was expected to be able to explain why it was the wrong question, too.

Then, there's the personal effort to continue to learn of such things outside of what I was required (and able) to learn as part of my job. A good instructor never stops being a student, right? It's been that way in my lifelong martial arts pursuit, so why would being a firearms trainer - and user/student - be any different?

I try to tell people I've helped train to avoid becoming lost within the data. What are you trying to prepare for? Is it a realistic situation to anticipate? Has previous or current training been useful? Can we adjust training to make it more effective to address the "new question"? Are we distracting ourselves from more critical questions and issues? Have we gone down the rabbit hole?

Statistics? Especially "reliable gun statistics"? How about Polls? ;)

Learn your firearm, including its maker-recommended maintenance and service intervals, and any associated gear (holster, including its safe & proper use, as well as recommended care and maintenance). Learn the laws related to the use-of-(deadly)force, especially the use of firearms in your jurisdiction (or any one you intend to visit).

If you require some legal advice specific to your concerns and activities, consider going to pay for some (attorneys usually charge for their services, right?). Police enforce the law, they don't practice it (although I've known my fair share of cops who also had law degrees and were licensed attorneys, as a sideline).

Just some personal thoughts.

Luck to you. :cool:
 
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